My responses in quote boxes like this
Roger_Lafayette;13030810]
I. BELIEFS ABOUT WHAT CAN BE DONE IN THE NEAR FUTURE
Belief 1: The FDA's proposed rule may be challenged in court, prior to any action undertaken against a specific manufacturer, just as it was in Soterra. So this proposed rule can be stopped long before the two year "window" closes.
False
Federal Courts demand a "case or controversy" before hearing the merits of a claim, and this is often interpreted as requiring that a federal agency act or threaten to act against a particular party before the court will entertain a request to issue an order to the agency in the form of an injunction. In the Soterra case, the FDA had already acted. It seems extremely unlikely that the FDA regulations could be stopped by any entity that had not at least submitted a rejected application for market approval, or received a "cease and desist" letter from the FDA, or been on the receiving end of a product siezure.
Sottera decision and Court still exist, if the FDA would try and act the same way, without being inside of the bounds of the new law the court pointed to, Sottera could ask for relief, including asking for a temporay injunction until a final ruling, in whichever court is heard.
Belief 2: The FDA is simply putting foward a framework for negotiation and discussion. If we vapers get together, then organizations that represent us and/or the vaping industry can sit down with the FDA and offer them a series of "compromises," that may result in the FDA drafting a different proposed rule.
False
The FDA's "listening sessions" are over. The only thing that vapers can do right now to participate in the formal process is to submit comments during the period that will end in early July (although CASAA intends to request an extension, the FDA has the sole authority to decline this request). Once the comment period ends, the FDA will draft a final proposed rule that will go to the OMB. If OMB permits the final proposed rule to move forward, it will then be presented to the US Congress. While Congress has the authority to block the proposed rule, it must act affirmatively to do so. Without any such vote, the rule will become final. Furthermore, any such vote would be subject to a Presidential veto.
The comments are required by law, and the reading of them by the FDA is required. If they were to just ignore them completely, it would be a problem for the FDA in future court actions. If you really believe its pointless to comment, why bother to be waiting for language to get from CASAA. You have contradictory language in your own assessment.
Also the FDA is required to read all comments, I really wonder why people are waiting for any organization other than their own, to comment. A bunch of copy and paste comments will be equal to once of the same comments, from an organization that represents people, like the CASAA.
I see know downside to drafting individual comments, even if one was to get it “wrong”, a wrong comment does not displace a correct one. Each comment is unique, and if someone says and can show they are representing 14K individuals like the CASAA will, having each CASAA member saying the exact same thing, does not multiple the effect. They are expecting something like 200K comments, from organizations and individuals.
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II. BELIEFS ABOUT PRODUCTS SOLD WITHIN DIFFERENT TIME PERIODS
Belief 3: There are products available prior to Feb '07 which are "substantially equivalent" to products available now, such as unflavored nicotine base.
Almost certainly false
Anything available prior to Feb '07 would have to be tested and proven to be chemically identical to whatever is sold now. Furthermore it would need to be offered in identical quantity and packaging. No hardware solution available at that time (if one could be found) is in any way comparable to something that could likely be offered today.
The E-Cig existed in 2007 in America. The liquid inside would be the same, Food Grade Flavorings, a general classification of pre-approved known to be safe ingredients. A pallet that every food maker can work with, pre blessed by the FDA. PG/VG and Nicotine. Whatever extra chemicals were in the 2007 products are not needed. And deleting items from a predicate product is better for approval, than adding new ones.
Belief 5: As long as an application is submitted within the two-year window after the rule becomes final, the FDA will allow the product to remain on the market until the application is reviewed, which might take many years, given the history of tobacco cigarette applications and the number of applications submitted prior to that application.
Probably false
There are no enforceable rules regarding the order in which applications are reviewed. The FDA could choose to reject every single vaping product on the first day after the two-year window closes. At that point, the products could be immediately pulled from the market, meaning that the FDA has the right to sieze and destroy them at the manufacturer's expense.
I think you are being purposefully naïve here. If the FDA could just reject applications, without any basis, they would do so for Analogs and Traditionals. You pretend the FDA can act without redress, as if Sottera was not possible. Your scenario would have the FDA locked into tons of legal cases for injuctions against FDA actions, which they would loose.
Maxwell its as if you are trying to play Checkers with someone who you want to pretend does not need to follow the rules of Checkers. Nation of Laws thing.
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III. BELIEFS ABOUT COSTS OF THE APPLICATION PROCESS AND THE REGULATORY FRAMEWORK
Belief 6: The costs of an application might be as little as a few thousand dollars, or perhaps a few tens of thousands of dollars.
False
No credible person who has looked at this process has suggested that it will cost less than several hundred thousand dollars (at a bare minimum) to do all the necessary studies and analyses of the product's effect on tobacco product usage behavior as well as fulfill the additional standards. Some estimates are as high as $10M. The FSPTCA statutory framework was specifically set up by Congress to deter big tobacco companies from marketing new varieties of tobacco cigarettes, so the barriars placed in their path will be very similar to those facing any e-liquid or vaping equipment manufacturer.
If you think that the cost of an application to understand 3 categories (E-Liquid) is going to take as much work as 4000+ inhaled items, I think you are just playing games. Nicotine taken to the lungs and body is the essential element of a Tobacco product. If you are talking levels never seen by Analogs that is one thing, if you are 2.4 and below, it the same element, different delivery, to the same human.
I think you are pretending intentional or not, that E-Cigs are bad for health, and that they are not able to be shown as safe. To this I think you are wrong. Saying that each application will take 10 Million dollars, is a fantasy, plucking numbers out of the air, and selling it as if certainly true.
You also want to pretend that the 3500 products which already have their applications in, and are being sold, all took 10 Million Dollars each to apply for. Silly. And you ignore that the FDA is still allowing 3500 products to be sold.
You ignore there is no application fee also. The cost of putting out something, that they would have to reject, is almost nothing. What makes you think that 3500 applications for currently being sold items, are nothing more that cut and paste….you don’t know, I don’t know the contents of 3500 documents either…..but we both know 1 thing, all those products are being sold today. Still. 500 items not being sold at the deadline, in limbo, sure…so I would suggest if you have product, get it out before the 2 year grace period for complance starts.
IV. BELIEFS ABOUT THE REQUIRED NUMBER OF DISTINCT APPLICATIONS
Belief 9: There will be one approval process for each flavor of e-liquid, which can then be used by other manufacturers.
False
If the history of the tobacco cigarette approval process is any guide, even the smallest variation in chemical composition or manufacturing standards between two e-liquids will require an individual application to be submitted for each. That includes, but is not necessarily limited to variations in nicotine content, package size, VG/PG ratios, and almost certainly packaging and even labelling.
The Family Tobacco act is actually pointed a lot to the precious children of the world, who cease being precious at the age of 18. Stuff like marketing to kids, advertising with Joe Camel cartoons in Magazines, the look of the package count for kiddies.
A nondescript bottle of juice, with some warnings is what E-Liquid looks like, so feel free to worry and worry about packaging.
Might as well put a large Skull and Bones with a Warning Contains nicotine on all the bottles, just to be sure its not kid friendly.
Belief 10: Hardware (vaping equipment) is not affected, so long as it doesn't contain nicotine, and/or isn't sold with nicotine as part of a "kit."
False
Any "component or part" of a "regulated tobacco product" is covered under the act, and the FDA has indicated that the standard is "intended or anticipated for use." While this approach would also theoretically cover rubber O-rings or 186xx batteries that are used for many other types of products, no one anticipates that the FDA will declare those items to be regulated "components or parts" of tobacco products. However anything that's unique to vaping and essential to a particular usable configuration of a regulated "tobacco product" (e.g. a drip tip) will likely be covered. This means it will require a separate application if it is sold separately. As with e-liquid and tobacco cigarettes, the smallest variations in manufacturing, composition, size, shape, color, and so forth will each yield the requirment for a separate application.
Here is where you are so very wrong. A battery source, replaceable Cell or integrated, with a Standard Connector. Can not be regulated by the FDA. Period. If it attached to a disposable with a Nic Cart installed. Yes. If sold as a Kit, Yes.
Tanks, APV of any type, battery sources, all have application far outside of Nicotine. AND THE FDA SAYS IT ONLY HAS DOMAIN OVER TOBACCO BASED NICOTINE.
The paraphernalia of Tobacco Products is out of scope. E-Liquid is the Tobacco Product. A disposable is a finished product. APV hardware and Clearos, are nothing but personal humidifiers. If water is used in Nic-Liquid, is water then also a tobacco product?
You are acting as if raw materials of manufacturing can be regulated. Its silly. You are acting like the entire MSDS system does not even exist.
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V. BELIEFS ABOUT OTHER "WORKAROUNDS"
Belief 12: A group of manufacturers can submit an application for high-strength e-liquid "base," which would then be used by the customer to create various flavorings. By pooling their resources, this consortium would have have the economic ability to satify the application standards and pursue any needed post-rejection litigation.
Probably false
The FDA is free to reject this application on the first day after the 2-year "window" expires, thus making the product illegal. That means the ROI for the investment involved in submitting the application will be zero until a court intervenes. It might be years before any litigation was concluded successfully for the manufacturers, thus making this an extremely risky prospect. It's not clear what the market would look like for e-liquid, particularly if vaping equipment hadn't been sold for many years prior to any eventual positive outcome in the courts. There are also other issues, such as the base composition ratio between PG and VG, and whether nicotine of that strength could be safely handled by consumers and result in an e-liquid that's also strong enough. Last but not least, any sellers of flavorings that were "intended or anticipated for use" with a "covered tobacco product" (i.e. the high-strength e-liquid) might be in exactly the same situation as vaping equipment manufacturers, i.e. they would be selling a "component or part" of a "tobacco product." This entire strategy is fraught with risks that are difficult to assess at best.
Flavorings are is a category. Much like in Food, the are a known set of accepted as Safe items. Next time you eat some food, tell me all the items which are within the term “Artificially Flavored” The artifical flavorings are a pallet of items that Big Food gets to use, they don’t have to apply for usage on each product they make.
Flavorings are heated in Vaping, they are incinerated in Smoking, that is not comparable. Have you looked at a MSDS before?
Belief 13: Anyone will be free to do so for their own use until laws are passed against "nicotine paraphernalia"
And we are free to use toothpicks until they ban those too….about as significant of a fear, considering both are without president. Are you saying they are about to create laws to ban Tobacco Pipes? If some of your fears were so easily possible, it would have been done with Analogs.
Belief 15: There is no way that the FDA can successfully keep vapers from accessing nicotine and/or vaping equipment on the black market. Besides, all federal agencies are prohibited from drafting regulations that create black markets.
Hard to evaluate
Many existing prescription drugs are sold on the black market. As with all black markets, any given person's experience will likely vary from that of others'.
Nicotine is a being sold in raw form because it is legal to do so. If it was not legal, they could not do it. For the FDA to do as you say, they need a bunch of new laws, that are not written, or proposed. They would need a law banning nicotine.
And that is my concern about much of what you proclaim, you need new laws, new rules, new ways of looking at items already controlled by law and the FDA, you pretty much need a conspiracy theory of new legislations, about to be drafted and set in stone. Ohhh but look what the FDA tried to do in 2009. oooooooohhhhh just look at that. From 2009-2013, what would you say would be the state of the health of the Vaping world?
If they have these incredible powers, and they are out to get you, and your vape, how is it that Sottera won, how is it that with all the same laws on the Books, signed into law, that the FDA did not just go gang busters in 2010 or 2012, or even 2013.
For you to be right in most everything you say above (not everything) you have to explain why all of this has not happened already. And why now, the FDA by most assessments won’t have a chance of doing anything until 2018, all of your theories of Doom. And by 2018, at current pace, without accelerating, it will be a 32 Billion dollar industry.
So Maxwell, to put it in a single sentence.
Your theory:
Is the FDA is going to let E-Cigs grow to an 32 Billion dollar industry in 2018, to then attempt (actually you say not attempt, you say they just get to) to shut it all down like a light-switch, poof, only Sottera and a few others remain at best.
Because it makes SO much sense to let it grow to a huge large size in 2018, just to then stop it in its tracks.
Prrrooooo HO Beatchin be a coming in 2018. Right about when Global Warming causes the Sky to Fall too.