Really sucks as I leave town for aweek Friday and get married Sunday. Hoping I dont come home to a flooded house!
we better cross all appendages!
Wxrisk.com
1 hr ·
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENTs - The 12z SUNDAY ECMWF has come out and there are SIGNIFICANT developments .
1 . The european model again holds course with a direct hit Wilmington NC at 955 mb ( more or less) whch would place Florence as strong cat3.
2 The Operational GFS is deeply flawed and very likely to be wrong and has no support for any other model of any kind. It should be ignored. That being said many of the local TV station will keep talking about it . Even the upgraded new GFS -- the GFS FV3- now agrees with the European model track
3 From there Florence Tracks NW around the western side of the ridge tracking close to between Raleigh and Charlotte into or over Greensboro NC
4 Florence moves NW into sw VA then dies . This results in massive rains of 12-25 inches of rain over nw NC north central NC all of southwest Va and all of Shenandoah valley. This will lead to catastrophic flooding for some .. This would include the metro areas of the of Greensboro Winston Salem and High Point .. Wytheville Blacksburg Roanoke Martinsville Danville South Boston Lynchburg Bedford Farmville ... Charlottesville Waynesboro Staunton Lexington Harrisonburg ....and the far southeastern third of West Virginia including areas such as Bluefield Princeton Lewisburg and maybe snowshoe WVA.
5 From I-95 east rainfall conditions are much different with rainfall amounts generally under under 5" and the winds would not probably reach over 45 miles an hour during the height of event. This would be a major break for all of Hampton Roads ...Richmond metro and northeast and North Carolina as well as the entire Chesapeake Bay and the Delmarva
6 Taken Verbatim 12z Sunday European Model has Florence taking a track a very similar to what we saw with hurricane Fran 1996. The main difference here is that Florence stalls over sw VA. IF this is correct- IF- Florence is NOT going to be that bad for eastern half of VA & northeast NC