Johnny W said, “So… we should expect to see NO NEW devices in the near future.”I never said that. Here it is again.
Here us what will happen if the grandfather date is changed.
All products on the market as of the predicate date can stay on the market with no PMTA.
How it will help new market is the new product is. They can prove that item #98474 is equivalent to item #35 that was grandfathered in on or before the predicate date. Much less time consuming, much less paper work, ABS much less expensive to be aporoved
Your replied, “That is correct unless....
1. HR2058 is passed.”
I agree that if HR2058 passes, some products should have an easier time getting approved as substantial equivalents of existing products. However, I don’t agree that HR2058 will lead to new products in the “near future.” But we could have a different idea of what "new" means and what “near future” means:
“Between the enactment of the tobacco Control Act and February 2011, the FDA received only 26 SE reports. But in March of 2011, it received 3,491. To put it mildly, this created a mountain of paperwork for the FDA.
"It has now been four and a half years since March 2011, and the FDA has barely made a dent in the massive backlog of SE report. Of those filed by March 22, 2011 (referred to as “provisional SE reports”), the FDA has made final determinations on only 23 of them. (All 23 were determined to be not substantially equivalent, meaning that their manufacturers had to discontinue their sale.) [Update: The current number is now 27; see the update at the end of this post.]
"At this rate, it will take the FDA at least another 500 years to clear the backlog of provisional SE applications. And that is not counting the new avalanche of filings that will likely come when the “deeming rule” expands the FDA’s jurisdiction to new types of tobacco products.” LINK
IMO, if the FDA remains consistent in the way it treats SE applications, it will take a very long time, and nothing significantly different from what we have now will ever get SE approval.