Jury Still Out on Long Term Effects

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Jman8

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Not sure if Media and News is appropriate place for this post, but since the title stems from another (original) post in this sub-forum, it made sense to me to put it here. And by it, I mean the following rant. Open for discussion, but I realize I'm preaching to the choir.

So yeah, in the Imperial College thread's OP, I read the following (very familiar) line: "While the jury is still out on the long-term health impacts of vaping, the evidence suggests that in the short to mid-term at least, switching from tobacco cigarettes to e-cigarettes could reduce the harm to smokers by as much as 95 percent."

Everything after "impacts of vaping" was news in 2010. Here in 2019, it's akin to saying water is wet, in case you didn't know that til just this moment.

The long term health impact(s) is currently the only legitimate leg our opposition has to stand on. Perhaps there's one other valid point in their arsenal, but honestly, none come to mind.

The jury being out is rhetoric that is silly. The fact that we (the jury) don't know what the (long term) future holds is perhaps even more obvious than water is wet. And yet, knowing that it is widely viewed as around 95% safer than smoking is one of those fact thingies that if the jury is ignoring that current information, then truly it is a rigged jury.

Breaking it down, who truly knows when precisely we'll reach that long term future event, where we now collectively understand? I predict no one knows, but may pretend otherwise. I'd say generally, it's likely in the 30 to 50 year range that we'd stand a chance of actually understanding said impacts.

With that said, the jury per se is not remotely out, sitting idly by, patiently waiting. Nope. Media (technically part of the jury) is certainly manipulating data along the way. I just googled along lines of "long term effects" and sure enough sith lord SG comes up with a 2018 article that boldly lays claim to signs of long term effects of vaping. While that's hitting the nail on the head, there is plenty of other media, mostly baloney, that is trying it's darnedest to get everyone believing negative effects of vaping.

Such that, any life threatening illness for any vaper, will undoubtedly be attributed to vaping as a contributing factor. All in the name of pseudo science. Emphasizing correlation to the ridiculous level of plausible causation. Actual science will likely never go there. ANTZ biased media will for sure, always go there. To read and not understand that vaping caused the latest scare tactic, will be seen as an addict in denial, and nothing short of 'scientific blasphemy.' How dare you think it's the THC vapes, and not vaping in general, that lead to deaths in 2019. We here at TobaccoFree will pray that you get on the righteous path, and realize vaping, in general, is and must always be, considered highly dangerous. Just you watch, those vapers will pass away some day, and we'll be right there to let you know all the things vaping caused for those dangerous, and then deceased, vapers.

One wonders, how can the jury be out when the press is openly influencing them (really us) with 97% baloney?
 

StormFinch

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People within the medical community, what there was of it, knew in the 1600s that smoking was bad for you. Even King James I, a dabbler in medical research, wrote treaties against tobacco... then the realization of how much the British government could make off of it kicked in. It took another 300+ years for a respected medical group (the Royal College of Physicians) to announce to the world that smoking kills, and another two years after that for the U.S. Surgeon General to get on board.

Nowadays we have bio-markers that we can look at, so we aren't as dependent on the long term. Try explaining that to the tobacco and pharma profit addicted though.

 
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StormFinch

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95%...a somewhat precise figure and one that is given god-like stature in these parts.

I've yet to see where scientific study determines that 95%.

The original quote by the Royal College of Physicians after doing their review back in 2016 was: "Although it is not possible to estimate the long-term health risks associated with e-cigarettes precisely, the available data suggest that they are unlikely to exceed 5% of those associated with smoked tobacco products, and may well be substantially lower than this figure."

After their own review in 2018, Professor John Newton, Director for Health Improvement at Public Health England stated: "Our new review reinforces the finding that vaping is a fraction of the risk of smoking, at least 95% less harmful, and of negligible risk to bystanders."
 
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Cool_Breeze

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The original quote by the Royal College of Physicians after doing their review back in 2016 was: "Although it is not possible to estimate the long-term health risks associated with e-cigarettes precisely, the available data suggest that they are unlikely to exceed 5% of those associated with smoked tobacco products, and may well be substantially lower than this figure."

After their own review in 2018, Professor John Newton, Director for Health Improvement at Public Health England stated: "Our new review reinforces the finding that vaping is a fraction of the risk of smoking, at least 95% less harmful, and of negligible risk to bystanders."

From my research the 95% figure originated in ~2014 in somewhat rural Switzerland. It was a figure conjoured by a committee at the conclusion of a meeting which included persons with dubious links to various interests. As is often stated here in ECF, "Follow the money."

Some of those who participated in the meeting went on to influence PHE.

The practice of medicine is an art, not a science. Rhetoric offered by individuals do not constitute scientific study. 95% is a great marketing figure. Where is it substantiated?

Show me the science.
 

StormFinch

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From my research the 95% figure originated in ~2014 in somewhat rural Switzerland. It was a figure conjoured by a committee at the conclusion of a meeting which included persons with dubious links to various interests. As is often stated here in ECF, "Follow the money."

Some of those who participated in the meeting went on to influence PHE.

The practice of medicine is an art, not a science. Rhetoric offered by individuals do not constitute scientific study. 95% is a great marketing figure. Where is it substantiated?

Show me the science.

As far as I am aware, the first appearance of that 95% was when the Royal College of Physicians released their results. Vapers simply took "unlikely to exceed 5% of those associated with smoked tobacco products" and turned it around by saying e-cigarettes were at least 95% less harmful than smoking.

The science has been in studies that are coming out continually. Both the RCP and Public Health England did Cochrane Reviews of those studies. Just like David Abrams in the video I posted farther up the thread, they looked at the bio-markers of vaping and then compared them to the known bio-markers of smoking.

You want science? Within the last month we've had a study stating that "smokers demonstrate significant improvement in vascular health within 1 month of switching."

In December of 2018 a multi research center group study of over 5000 participants stated that "Exclusive e-cigarette users showed 10% to 98% significantly lower concentrations of biomarkers of exposure, including TSNAs, PAHs, most VOCs, and nicotine, compared with exclusive cigarette smokers." They do state that some metal exposure wasn't lower in e-cig users, however since metals have a long half life they admit that the bio-markers for metals could have originated from previous smoking.

In 2017 another multi research center group similar to the 2018 study showed that "Long-term NRT-only and e-cigarette-only use, but not dual use of NRTs or e-cigarettes with combustible cigarettes, is associated with substantially reduced levels of measured carcinogens and toxins relative to smoking only combustible cigarettes." And, if you scroll down to figure 2 on this study you will find that urinary levels for tobacco- specific N-nitrosamine, Acrolein, Acrylamide, Acrylonitrile, 1,3-butadiene and Ethylene oxide are all lower in e-cigarette users than in NRT users.

That's just three within the last two years. If you want more, I'd suggest Pub Med, however keep in mind that there is a lot of junk being published. For example, Glantz's study in which he insisted that e-cigarettes cause heart attacks, despite the fact that a third of his case studies had MIs up to 10 years before they initiated vaping. Or, the mice that were inbred for ease of developing cancer and of whom 60% have some form by end of life without being exposed to anything.
 

ruet

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Not sure if Media and News is appropriate place for this post, but since the title stems from another (original) post in this sub-forum, it made sense to me to put it here. And by it, I mean the following rant. Open for discussion, but I realize I'm preaching to the choir.

So yeah, in the Imperial College thread's OP, I read the following (very familiar) line: "While the jury is still out on the long-term health impacts of vaping, the evidence suggests that in the short to mid-term at least, switching from tobacco cigarettes to e-cigarettes could reduce the harm to smokers by as much as 95 percent."

Everything after "impacts of vaping" was news in 2010. Here in 2019, it's akin to saying water is wet, in case you didn't know that til just this moment.

The long term health impact(s) is currently the only legitimate leg our opposition has to stand on. Perhaps there's one other valid point in their arsenal, but honestly, none come to mind.

The jury being out is rhetoric that is silly. The fact that we (the jury) don't know what the (long term) future holds is perhaps even more obvious than water is wet. And yet, knowing that it is widely viewed as around 95% safer than smoking is one of those fact thingies that if the jury is ignoring that current information, then truly it is a rigged jury.

Breaking it down, who truly knows when precisely we'll reach that long term future event, where we now collectively understand? I predict no one knows, but may pretend otherwise. I'd say generally, it's likely in the 30 to 50 year range that we'd stand a chance of actually understanding said impacts.

With that said, the jury per se is not remotely out, sitting idly by, patiently waiting. Nope. Media (technically part of the jury) is certainly manipulating data along the way. I just googled along lines of "long term effects" and sure enough sith lord SG comes up with a 2018 article that boldly lays claim to signs of long term effects of vaping. While that's hitting the nail on the head, there is plenty of other media, mostly baloney, that is trying it's darnedest to get everyone believing negative effects of vaping.

Such that, any life threatening illness for any vaper, will undoubtedly be attributed to vaping as a contributing factor. All in the name of pseudo science. Emphasizing correlation to the ridiculous level of plausible causation. Actual science will likely never go there. ANTZ biased media will for sure, always go there. To read and not understand that vaping caused the latest scare tactic, will be seen as an addict in denial, and nothing short of 'scientific blasphemy.' How dare you think it's the THC vapes, and not vaping in general, that lead to deaths in 2019. We here at TobaccoFree will pray that you get on the righteous path, and realize vaping, in general, is and must always be, considered highly dangerous. Just you watch, those vapers will pass away some day, and we'll be right there to let you know all the things vaping caused for those dangerous, and then deceased, vapers.

One wonders, how can the jury be out when the press is openly influencing them (really us) with 97% baloney?


More context

“A toxicologist will try not to use the word ‘safe’, but we probably could conclude that they’re not very harmful. But their long-term effects, in a few people, remain unknown"


Basically, not harmful long-term.
 
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