New working paper by Philips, Nissen and Rodu - Must read.

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Kent C

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And yet, you quote zero from this paper. Methinks you aren't sure what it is really about.

Attack - it's your only hope here :D I quoted plenty on #3 & 4 before you came around. Others can decide from my other posts whether I 'got it' or not. I could cherry pick cessation passages - there's quite a few - practically the whole paper - just not that interested in doing so.
 

Jman8

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Attack - it's your only hope here :D I quoted plenty on #3 & 4 before you came around

I recalled you doing that immediately after I posted what I said. But was stating that in your discourse with me, you weren't quoting to back up your position. Plus, I went back and read what you quoted, and it supported my take on things and didn't feel like showing you up more than I already have.

I could cherry pick cessation passages - there's quite a few - practically the whole paper - just not that interested in doing so.

I too could cherry pick cessation passages. But would be hard pressed to show that this is what the paper is getting at. Like in the Abstract and Introduction, it is clearly stating that literature / research about people who want to quit smoking is almost always interpreted in naive ways. With a concluding statement that reads, "The careful wording of their conclusion, “those who use e- cigarettes appear more likely to be able to remain abstinent”, is accurate. But it lends itself to the over-interpretation that “e-cigarettes are the better option for smoking cessation”, and exactly that misinterpretation has been widely touted." So, while this is clearly mentioning cessation, the assertions are not really about cessation, but about misinterpretation of what is really being said. Hence the paper's intention to create a taxonomy (categorization) of smoking behavior, so that the claims of "I want to quit" can be put in (proper) perspective, with clear indication that "I want to quit" is actually a second order preference for many, but not all, current smokers.

Then analysis, or meat of the paper, is all about smoking behavior and how the medical model has skewed that behavior to funnel everything toward continuing smoking is a disease at work and that cessation is what everyone, that smokes, really wants, as anti-smoking surveys (clearly) indicate. Whereas authors of the piece aren't caught up in that paradigm (where cessation is all that matters, because smoking is inherently bad), but instead recognize smoking is a choice, as cessation is a preference, rather than correction to the inherently bad problem. And further recognize that first order preference is to continue smoking, even while second order preference, often naively interpreted as first-order, is that the majority of smokers wish to quit.

The smoking cessation orthodoxy misinterprets the second-order preference as first-order and convinces people to embrace this misconception. They interpret survey responses or personal communications of “I want to quit” as first-order, even though the lack of corresponding action means this is almost certainly not accurate, and take this as an invitation to use any means at their disposal to force smokers into abstinence.

The whole categorization section is establishing (further) that first order of preference for 4 out of 5 categories is not cessation, even while second order preferences may indicate that, and are naively interpreted as predominant desire, or inclination, of the current smoker.

This suggests that the best option for many in Category 3 is to migrate into Category 4. Once they understand that their desire to quit is second-order, and that they are really looking for a way to prefer not smoking to smoking, finding ways to quit without the reduced net benefits from abstinence is the obvious strategy. Anti-tobacco extremists try to discourage THR by misleading people into believing that the alternative products are not substantially less harmful than smoking and other falsehoods (23-26). But a second and perhaps equally important anti-THR tactic has been largely overlooked: By successfully convincing the bulk of smokers who are in Category 3 that they are really in Category 2, and thus just need a bit of help from “approved” cessation methods, these activists discourage them from attempting the one method – switching to an alternative product – that might work for them. For most of the history of THR promotion efforts, a common response of smokers to a recommendation of switching to a low-risk alternative was “I don’t need that because I am just going to quit soon,” which was unfortunately recited mostly by smokers who did not actually quit soon. Part of the success of e- cigarettes is probably that the celebratory culture that surrounds them has broken many Category 3 smokers out of this socially-constructed dead end.

And jumping to the concluding paragraph of the paper:

Unbiased and thoughtful interpretation of smoking cessation study results could provide much useful information about how to advise smokers who want to quit. But very little of that seems to be occurring. If helping people who want to quit, or want to want to quit – rather than just generating revenue or rhetoric – is the goal of the research, then some more serious attention to the nature of the phenomena being studied is in order, with smokers seen as consumers with first- and second-order preferences that drive their behavior, rather than as patients with an illness for whom assigning a cure would be appropriate.

This paragraph mentions quitting (smoking, aka cessation) at least 4 times and from what I get from this paragraph like the others ones I've quoted or much of the paper is that it is not really about cessation, but about understanding smokers as consumers with first- and second-order preferences which drive their behavior. The first order preference, in several instances is I actually wish to continue smoking, but think I want to quit because I think I'd prefer to not prefer to be a smoker, cause ANTZ have managed to influence everyone around me, including me, to think that such a preference really ought to be my highest choice, ya know, given that smoking is an inherent problem with who I am.
 

Uma

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I'm not going to comment on this just yet, save to say it requires careful and thorough reading and, I believe, the level of analysis they've engaged in will be music to many posters' ears.

It's a very important piece of work.

Working Paper: Phillips-Nissen-Rodu, Understanding the evidence about the comparative success of smoking cessation methods: choice, second-order preferences, tobacco harm reduction, and other neglected considerations | EP-ology

Is it ok for us to "share" this paper?
 
I'm back.

Re sharing: Of course! That is the reason I posted it.

Re the title of the paper being not quite right: I agree, it could use some work. This is mostly about understanding cessation methods and goals, but it is deeper than that. Understanding second-order preferences is a lot of what is interesting about it, of course. I will think about what I could do with it.

Note that understanding smoking as a rational choice based on costs and benefits is not part of what is new in this paper. I should do a better job of referencing back to what I have been writing on that point for years. I will do that.

Re the other points from the extended dialogue: I think most of it goes beyond the scope of what is being covered. There is already too much to cover without trying to get into the details of cutting down and such. I really don't think much is lost from the core message by setting that aside. Ultimately it is about smoking cessation.

Re people who do not really want to quit, but still might be enticed by THR: I would say you fit squarely in the unanalyzed Category 5. If I were to analyze Category 5 a bit, it would end up including those who could learn that they really do want to switch. But the paper is already too long. Still, one sentence about that would probably be worth adding.
 

Kent C

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Re people who do not really want to quit, but still might be enticed by THR: I would say you fit squarely in the unanalyzed Category 5. If I were to analyze Category 5 a bit, it would end up including those who could learn that they really do want to switch.

Carl, thanks for the response. On the passage above, while one could make the case that 'if you switched from cigarettes to ecigs, then "you really did want to quit",' and it would seem that would be the case. For me, without years of psychoanalysis :) but merely on my own conscious considerations on it, it would be as if I played tennis (which I did) and tried racquetball (which I did) and I liked racquetball better. There was no real intent on 'quitting tennis', only that I enjoyed racquetball more. The fact that there may have been better 'health' aspects - better cardio, leg work, loss of weight, etc. were nice 'by products,' but it was the fact that I enjoyed the play better than tennis. How many are in that 'category' wrt cigs/ecigs I have no idea. But I hope it gives you some insight into another possible alternative choice, or a differently defined cat.#5.

That said, I see many of the preference you mention in smokers who have asked me about ecigs. What seems to me a major consideration or response to many is a 'fear' of not getting the same experience as smoking. Many had cold turkey and NRT type experiences and failed miserably and didn't want to experience that again. Their 'first preference' to smoking is multiples of their 'second preference' not to smoke. I'm talking mainly heavy smokers, but had one light smoker who tried ecigs and quit smoking then quit vaping. I've had others try ecigs - go back to smoking - then come back to me for 'any new developments' and have quit smoking with 2nd and 3rd generation ecigs. About 70% of those I've introduced to ecigs have quit smoking. About 10% are dual users. The rest were cases of 'ecigs aren't for me' - likely due to the maintenance and paraphernalia aspects.
 
one could make the case that 'if you switched from cigarettes to ecigs, then "you really did want to quit",' and it would seem that would be the case. For me, without years of psychoanalysis :) but merely on my own conscious considerations on it, it would be as if I played tennis (which I did) and tried racquetball (which I did) and I liked racquetball better. There was no real intent on 'quitting tennis', only that I enjoyed racquetball more.

Yeah, one more thing I should probably add an allusion to. The phenomenon you speak of is sometimes called "latent preferences". If you could attach a prefer-o-meter to someone to figure out what their preference ordering was even among choices they had never assessed, you would see that preference. But in reality, people have to act not on that true underlying (latent) preference, but their preference based on what they actually know. So you preferred tennis to the concept of switching to racquetball. In some sense you neither preferred nor dispreferred racquetball because you were not genuinely aware of the actual experience of playing it.

Somehow I have to work a reference to that in. I will save myself the nightmare that the previous paragraph was turning into by just writing one sentence and then a "beyond the scope" message.

Unless (sigh) I start thinking about this more, like I am now, and start wondering if it affects anything fundamentally.
 

Nate760

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Re people who do not really want to quit, but still might be enticed by THR: I would say you fit squarely in the unanalyzed Category 5. If I were to analyze Category 5 a bit, it would end up including those who could learn that they really do want to switch. But the paper is already too long. Still, one sentence about that would probably be worth adding.

This probably places me in a hypothetical Category 6 [people who had no particular inclination to quit, but did, though not for health reasons; rather, because they found vaping more enjoyable and less expensive, with harm reduction being merely an ancillary side benefit].
 

Kent C

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But in reality, people have to act not on that true underlying (latent) preference, but their preference based on what they actually know. So you preferred tennis to the concept of switching to racquetball.

This is a good point and shows the flaw in the tennis/racquetball analogy, but only in regards to smoking cessation, which for me was not the case - "a priori" :) An analogy is only as good as the number of factors that are the same in the analogy as it is in the real world. Any smoker would know the difference between smoking and not smoking - so both choices are known. For me, the knowledge (of racquetball and vaping) was only after the experience - a posteriori.

When viewed as "nicotine use" (with vapor/aerosol - which I believe is at least 50% of the habit) instead of "smoking cigarettes", nothing actually changed :)
 

DC2

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This probably places me in a hypothetical Category 6 [people who had no particular inclination to quit, but did, though not for health reasons; rather, because they found vaping more enjoyable and less expensive, with harm reduction being merely an ancillary side benefit].
I have no idea what my category is, but I only quit smoking because my wife hated the way I smelled after having a cigarette.
When a good substitute for my calming and soothing habit and rituals came along, it was easy.
 

DrMA

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If possible, I'd like to hear Dr. Phillips' perspective on this publication:

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3939769/

[h=2]Abstract[/h]From Brainwashed: The Seductive Appeal of Mindless Neuroscience by Sally Satel and Scott Lilienfeld, copyright © 2013. Reprinted by permission of Basic Books, a member of The Perseus Books Group.
The notion that addiction is a “brain disease” has become widespread and rarely challenged. The brain-disease model implies erroneously that the brain is necessarily the most important and useful level of analysis for understanding and treating addiction. This paper will explain the limits of over-medicalizing – while acknowledging a legitimate place for medication in the therapeutic repertoire – and why a broader perspective on the problems of the addicted person is essential to understanding addiction and to providing optimal care. In short, the brain-disease model obscures the dimension of choice in addiction, the capacity to respond to incentives, and also the essential fact people use drugs for reasons (as consistent with a self-medication hypothesis). The latter becomes obvious when patients become abstinent yet still struggle to assume rewarding lives in the realm of work and relationships. Thankfully, addicts can choose to recover and are not helpless victims of their own “hijacked brains.”

Keywords: brain-disease fallacy, addiction, fMRI, Project HOPE, brain-disease model


 
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AndriaD

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I've only scanned the paper quite briefly, mainly to understand all this discussion of "categories"; I see both #2 and #4 in myself; I would say I was a person who wanted to be a non-smoker without having to suffer to get there, and e-cigs give me that, so they work for me as a way of not smoking cigarettes -- and I don't consider perpetual vaping to be 'smoking by a different name,' nor particularly harmful, except possibly for my own specific case of an asthmatic whose asthma has gone out-of-control since quitting smoking/starting vaping. I guess at this point I'm willing to put up with what I hope is a temporary downside in order to enjoy far less long-term risk.

Andria
 

Kent C

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If possible, I'd like to hear Dr. Phillips' perspective on this publication:

I did a search figuring Carl may have reviewed in 2013 - but only found a link to the review of the book mentioned but couldn't view it without signing up..... so I passed :) But it's in the area of his last paper - perhaps he'll see this and comment.
 

Jman8

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Re the title of the paper being not quite right: I agree, it could use some work. This is mostly about understanding cessation methods and goals, but it is deeper than that. Understanding second-order preferences is a lot of what is interesting about it, of course. I will think about what I could do with it.

Note that understanding smoking as a rational choice based on costs and benefits is not part of what is new in this paper. I should do a better job of referencing back to what I have been writing on that point for years. I will do that.

Re the other points from the extended dialogue: I think most of it goes beyond the scope of what is being covered. There is already too much to cover without trying to get into the details of cutting down and such. I really don't think much is lost from the core message by setting that aside. Ultimately it is about smoking cessation.

My apologies, but I disagree it is ultimately about smoking cessation, especially after you have written "This is mostly about understanding cessation methods and goals, but it is deeper than that." For me, it is deeper than 'about smoking cessation' and even with you, the author, I am willing to go paragraph by paragraph to show that it is deeper than this simple take of 'smoking cessation.'

Re people who do not really want to quit, but still might be enticed by THR: I would say you fit squarely in the unanalyzed Category 5. If I were to analyze Category 5 a bit, it would end up including those who could learn that they really do want to switch. But the paper is already too long. Still, one sentence about that would probably be worth adding.

"the paper is too long" is, for me, the reason the other stuff that I see this paper approaching, but falling short on, is not included. I can accept that. I think it is a very good, well written paper. The message it contains is light years ahead of most other papers that highlight smoking cessation methods. I'm very glad you wrote it and that it serves as part of a larger dialogue on this broad topic.
 
Any smoker would know the difference between smoking and not smoking - so both choices are known.

I am not sure that is so. I am pretty sure that for many smokers, perhaps most, they have no real understanding of what not smoking would be like. Most people who try to quit under the pretense that after they get over the hump they will be perfectly happy about being a nonsmoker probably do not realize that, having quit, they will miss the benefits of smoking. That is why most of them start again. That is a fairly foundational bit of our analysis.
 
If possible, I'd like to hear Dr. Phillips' perspective on this publication:

...Brainwashed: The Seductive Appeal of Mindless Neuroscience by Sally Satel and Scott Lilienfeld, copyright © 2013.

I have not read the book. I generally agree with Sally about 98% -- not quite 100%. I have written extensively about how addiction -- as people use the word -- has be defined in terms of behavior, not biology, because that is what it is referring to. That is in keeping with Sally's thesis. See, for example, this long discussion: Does ANYONE have a valid definition of “addiction”? | Anti-THR Lies and related topics I also am very critical of "brain porn" studies, in which someone acquires the ability to scan for signs of brain activity following an exposure, and so does that and declares that the results are what matter about the exposure ipso facto.
 
My apologies, but I disagree it is ultimately about smoking cessation, especially after you have written "This is mostly about understanding cessation methods and goals, but it is deeper than that." For me, it is deeper than 'about smoking cessation' and even with you, the author, I am willing to go paragraph by paragraph to show that it is deeper than this simple take of 'smoking cessation.'



"the paper is too long" is, for me, the reason the other stuff that I see this paper approaching, but falling short on, is not included. I can accept that. I think it is a very good, well written paper. The message it contains is light years ahead of most other papers that highlight smoking cessation methods. I'm very glad you wrote it and that it serves as part of a larger dialogue on this broad topic.


I agree that it is a critical paper. (And, yes, that opinion is worth something. I have written a lot of papers and do not say that about very many of them.) And it opens up entirely new ways of thinking for those who have not followed me down this general path before. Those who have will find many of the ideas familiar rather than new, though enough are still new to make this paper important even on top of the context.

The bits about treating tobacco use as a fairly normal rational decision are new to many readers, but they are not new to this paper -- I have written that many times before. The concept of second order preferences is new to many readers, but has a literature behind it. The "paradox" of people saying they want to quit but not quitting has been addressed (ineffectively, IMO) many times before. What makes this paper new is bringing those together in the context of why people quit smoking, or not, and how they might go about it better. But, of course, the other layers are interesting in their own right for anyone seeing them for the first time, which I do realize will be many readers. I expect this will attract a lot more attention than the prior art on the foundational points.
 
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