Phillips vs Eissenberg

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rolygate

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It had to happen one day: one researcher commenting on another's work in the e-cigarette field.

Carl Phillips is slightly critical of Tom Eissenberg's work in this blog about electronic cigarette research. It is a fascinating glimpse into the world of researchers and how they feel about each other's work. It is probably not a good idea for us to take sides since it is not obvious at this stage who is for us and who is agin' us...

There are all sorts of reasons to regard all published research up to this date as suspect. From the findings of one that no nicotine benefit resulted from use, to others that purported to analyse the vapor but showed photos of the hardware being operated in ways that meant it could not possibly function correctly, the single thing that characterises studies is their lack of adequate oversight by persons with knowledge of the equipment being studied. A little like testing cars but without anyone who can drive.

The current study in Boston looks to be the first to be run with a nod to the fact that if you want to test cars, you need people who can drive. There is only one significant item of knowledge that a researcher needs in order to start designing a study: there are no comparable factors in e-cigarette or tobacco cigarette purchase, preparation or use. None whatsoever. The only common factor is that both are inserted in the mouth - which seems to have confused a great many people.

No doubt all the researchers mean well, but there is a worrying undercurrent to much of their work that seems to suggest that (a) e-cigarettes are not a consumer product like Snus etc, and that (b) some form of regulation, preferably medical, is required. It may have escaped their notice that the agency who would be in a position to operate any such regulations has been described as, "The most corrupt large government agency in the world" - and that is saying something, looking at the competition from Nigeria and Pakistan. The only agenda such agencies have is to obey their paymasters, the pharma industry, and shut e-cigarettes down.

Now, what would be a real sign of progress would be the medics saying that they recognise that smokeless tobacco is a lot safer, and will help by analysis of the materials and recommendations as to fitness for purpose, without bringing in regulators. All the 'regulators' round here are the .45 calibre variety as in the old West - regulation = termination.

In any case, nobody is going to fund a real study of electronic cigarettes (ie, one that studied 1,000 experienced users over three years or more) because we already know what it would find:

1. Smokers use e-cigarettes as a better alternative to inhaling burning plant material.
2. They self-dose efficiently - exactly as they do with coffee, cigarettes, and alcoholic drinks.
3. There is a significant pharmacological effect - just as for coffee, cigarettes, and alcoholic drinks.
4. There are no significant health implications, or at least any that will be encountered until millions have used them for 20 years, and even then the potential for harm probably equals that for Snus (ie, very little indeed).
5. Government health departments should switch their focus to harm reduction instead of quit or die methods that don't work, and don't work at a very high cost to everyone (but we've known that for decades).
6. They are a great idea but unfortunately will result in a massive drop in tobacco tax revenues as more smokers switch.
7. If they are banned (by being 'medicalised'), the largest black market ever seen in the history of the world will be created.

Nobody wants to hear any of that.

Look what happened to Snus: Sweden has the lowest male cancer rate in Europe, but apparently that is of no importance as there must be some other way in which Snus might be harmful...

Everybody involved in any way has some sort of financial agenda. E-cigarette users simply want to be left alone, and it must be obvious to the meanest of intellects that they are not killing themselves. Show them someone who has no agenda and they might just listen; currently, anyone who shows an interest is justifiably regarded with suspicion.
 

Placebo Effect

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I was one of those people who brought up Dr. Eissenberg when I met Dr. Phillips at Vapefest. It was an interesting conversation, and I'm glad my mention partially resulted in his blog post. As a participant in the study, not to mention an e-cig user, I'm very much looking forward to the eventual publication of the full results, which won't be able to happen until he has approximately 10+ participants. I hope that his paper (and probably most importantly, the press release VCU distributes) sticks to the topic of nicotine blood levels, heart rate, blood pressure, etc. in selected users, and that he doesn't feel the need to introduce his reluctance to accept the safety of long-term inhalation of propylene glycol into either writing.
 

Bill Godshall

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As one who has known both Phillips and Eissenberg for the past decade and is familiar with all (or virtually all) of their published articles related to tobacco/nicotine products, I consider them to have vastly different perspectives.

While Phillips' views are based upon the totality of existing evidence, common sense and a libertarian perspective (which is why he strongly supports the marketing and use by smokers of any/all smokefree tobacco/nicotine alternatives), Eissenberg basically considers his own very limited research findings to trump all other existing evidence and he also endorses government regulation of all tobacco/nicotine products (regardless of the health/safety risk profile of the product).
 

LittleOralFix

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I was following you till I got to this part:

7. If they are banned (by being 'medicalised'), the largest black market ever seen in the history of the world will be created.

I think that is an extreme view and that it really taints the rest of your sound argument. The biggest black market in history is the drug trade, and I highly doubt e-cigs will be bigger than the top three that are already the largest.

I could always be wrong though. Feel free to point me in the direction of information supporting it. With that taken out I could see your post being very helpful to the cause and easy for outsiders to understand.

All the best,
 

rolygate

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Sure. Guilty of a little hyperbole perhaps but that's the spirit this game is played in by all. Anyway, here are some points:

-- The userbase is growing by 500% per year at present, as no other figure can explain the user numbers.

-- By Q1 2012, even if growth slows down, ecigs will achieve 5% market penetration; that is, 5% of the total smoking population will be ecig users. Or if you like, 5% of smokers will have quit and switched to e-cigs. [1]

-- Assuming the growth rate slows down further, 25% of smokers will not be be using an e-cig until about 2020. That's ~15 million in the US.

-- Let's now assume a ban exists. With 15 million people walking around flaunting their gear as it's not illegal to own or use, it will become the fashion accessory of all time, the iPod of the 2020's. Sales may be banned but individual ownership isn't, so e-cig use will be seen universally as a safe way to show disagreement with government control.

-- It really doesn't matter if they have made sales illegal by that stage, once the genie is out of the bottle you can't put it back. Millions of people will openly use them as a sign of discontent with an oppressive government. And government will be more oppressive in all areas by that time, as our problems are getting worse not better. Fuel and cigarettes will be an incredible price by then.

No doubt the other black markets will be bigger by then, but if there were to be an e-cig black market it would be a sizeable affair. Look: the US e-cig market is worth $100m per year now, with <2% of the smoking market. With 25% of the smoking market it would be worth $1.5 to $2 billion, but as prices will go up due to import and distribution issues you can double that. So by 2020 if e-cigs are banned the US market will be worth about 3 or 4 billion dollars a year.

How's that for purely speculative statistics? :)

I think one of the issues here is that people just don't realise how big this is. A 500% growth rate per year tells the story.

[1] E-cig sitrep
 

Ande

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I hear you Rolygate.

And, if it comes to it, count me in. I will perpetrate any number of blackmarket crimes before I surrender the means and benefits of tobacco harm reduction.

It is hyperbole- Markets tend to grow exponentially in the beginning. When Hon Lik walked out of his lab and introduced his colleagues to vaping, the market probably grew by 1000% in an afternoon. As the overall numbers get bigger, the rate of growth tends to dive.

I think we'd have a sizeable black market on our hands, but unless the opposition backs off, I don't envisage anything like 20% of the smoking market any time soon. It's too "fringe," even with the publicity it's getting.


Best,
Ande
 

rolygate

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The question is when, not if. Sweden has about 20% of the population using Snus (and around 12% smoking although that figure is disputed more than the Snus one). That is to say, nearly twice as many Snus users as smokers.

E-cigarettes are and will continue to be more popular than Snus.

For example the UK is one of the most conservative countries in the world, but by 2013, 6% of smokers (or, of nicotine users, if you prefer) will be e-cig users - and there has been no real marketing at all. Imagine what would happen if someone with an advertising budget started to promote e-cigarettes.
 
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