Ultimately, this scenario always plays out the same way: the second-term president's party gets crushed in the midterms, followed by two years of even more stagnation and gridlock than usual, as everyone plays the political risk-aversion game with an eye toward the next presidential election year. Some sort of White House scandal(s) erupt(s) (Iran-Contra, Monica Lewinsky, US Attorney firings, etc.) which dominate(s) the media coverage for the remainder of the president's lame-duck term. Meanwhile, nothing particularly important or noteworthy happens in terms of legislative or executive action.
Clinton was elected first term '92 - House and Senate went Republican in '94 for the first time in over 50 years. (before Monica, btw)
Democrats under Truman lost 83 House seats in two midterms in 1946 (55 seats) and 1950 (28 seats). After that, Eisenhower dropped 66 seats in l954 and l958, but no president since Truman has equaled Obama's loss of seats, the Rothenberg Political Report states.
A side note to the idea being put forth that that this election was more about 'anti-incumbent', than against the president's policies. 41 incumbent House members retired. Of the remaining 394 up for election only 13 lost their election - ie 97% incumbents were re-elected.
3 (some still pending or contested) incumbent senators lost their seats. There were 4 'Democrat' seats lost in open elections where incumbents were retiring.


