The Death of 510

[UncLeJunkLe]

Forget about the FDA and their hatred of open systems. I believe that China will eventually stop making 510 gear. Pods and disposables are just much more conducive to a maturing market, that gets lazier and lazier the more the market matures. Not necessarily lazy in a bad way, just that they seek convenience and simplicity over everything else.

I base this off of reports I hear on Reddit and Discord about local US vape shops mostly being pod and disposables shops. And the folks who work in them know little to nothing about 510 gear. But also, 2 years ago I called one of my 2 local shops and they said they had really no mods, RDAs, RTAs except for a few pieces in the back room.

And today I visited the other in town they have just a small selection of 510 gear, none of it new releases. Just all pods, dispos and of course juice. Lots of juice, of course. I felt like a dinosaur in there with my Pico and KF5 lol. Didn't stay long, was just curious how it changed from the last time I was in there probably 7+ years ago.

Not to mention, by my observation, 510 offerings coming out of China today seem to be few and far between compared to just 2 or 3 years ago.

So I predict that mainstream Chinese manufacturers will drop 510 within 5 years. When that happens, the only 510 gear available will be from small mid-to-high-end gear manufacturers and prices will skyrocket (even for clones), pushing more 510 vapers to pods and dispos. But I also think that DIY mods will make a comeback to a degree, too (but not like before because the need for it won't be the same as before since we do have other options today),

What do you think?

I know this an be a emotional subject for some long-time 510 vapers. I don't like it either, but I'm strictly looking at the current market and projecting forward.

 

[Tor R]

I don't think so, there will always be some Chinese companies left that produce a bit of old fasion, like Innokin.
It's not too long ago that Cthulhu released a 510 mod and a mtl rta.

Then there are all the European brands, high end, which only make 510 mods, boros, and rta's.

China is very disposable these days, but when half of Europe introduces a flavor ban and fda only allows the tobacco companies to sell legally in the US..... what will China really make in the future?

 

[Tor R]

More China, in 2026 the EU will introduce an energy tax (high) on Chinese goods produced with coal-fired power plants.
So it is that China is also the world leader in the development of renewable energy, but they are also the largest in coal burning.
It could very well be a scenario where the authorities decide what is important to China and be able to sell (the future) while less important production uses coal-fired power plants.

I don't think the 510 is going away, but I think a lot of brands are going away.

 

[smacuser]

Rest in peace

 

[Rossum]

Pods and disposables are just much more conducive to a maturing market,

There's more money to be made in the long run selling someone a $10-20 disposable every few days than a $100 510 setup every year or two.

I've got a contractor doing a big project at my house in PA over the last few days. Seven guys have been working on it. At least four or five of them vape, and they're all using disposables. I talked to one of the about it at some length. He said he used to make his own coils (and thus presumably used a 510 setup of some sort) but he got tired of fussing with it. "Burnt taste too often".

My guess is the disposables have gotten pretty good. I dunno though, 'cause I'm so set in my mech-squonker ways, an it's rare that a (rayon) wick doesn't last me several months.

 

[UncLeJunkLe]

My guess is the disposables have gotten pretty good.

That's what I hear. Of course, some are gonna better than others, but convenience wins in any matured/maturing market.

Most cigarette smokers don't roll despite the major cost savings and ease of using a rolling or stuffing machine.

Dispose & semi-dispos will = cigarettes
Refillable pods will = RYO
510 will = WTF is that bruh?

 

[Izan]

I have the idea that the 510 format is very common on the canna/concentrate side of the vape marketplace.



cheers
I

 

[UncLeJunkLe]

I have the idea that the 510 format is very common on the canna/concentrate side of the vape marketplace.



cheers
I

Yes it is, but then again, that segment of the vape market is still in it's infancy compared to nic vape. We (the nic vape market) are 15+ years into maturity.

 

[TheSingularity]

I have the idea that the 510 format is very common on the canna/concentrate side of the vape marketplace.



cheers
I

There's also the issue that most concentrate sales for vape use are sold in prefilled carts. Only know a couple people who have used their homemade concentrates and PEG to make their own carts, and they stopped when recreational legality became a thing in my state.

 

[Rossum]

510 will = WTF is that bruh?

I'm thinking it's the equivalent of a pipe, which was the almost universal way to smoke tobacco before rolled up (disposable) cigarettes became a thing.

However, pipes never went away completely, and neither did pipe tobacco.

As for China not making 510 hardware anymore, I personally don't care. None of my gear was made in China to begin with, and what I have will out-live me. Kinda like a nice collection of artisanal pipes would.

 

[TheSingularity]

I'm thinking it's the equivalent of a pipe...

Not exactly. Technically speaking it's a vaporizer setup, similar to a 'nectar collector'. If you can imagine putting a 300F bit of metal in the bowl of a tobacco pipe, rather than a flame, you're on the right track. No combustion, no embers, just heat enough to evaporate the volatile chemicals.

 

[UncLeJunkLe]

However, pipes never went away completely, and neither did pipe tobacco.

Which is why I believe 510 will remain a niche built by niche brands at higher retail cost than China gives today.

As for China not making 510 hardware anymore, I personally don't care.

But whether you, I or the other person cares if china makes anything they use, it's neither here nor there.

However, now that we're on that subject: reality is, for vape gear, it's China who got us to this level of market maturity this fast because they can provide the price points the average joe vaper or smoker-wanna-become-vaper can afford. Couple that with the fact that mainstream Chinese vape gear has come a loooooooong, long way from the cigalike and Ego and you'll see that it is China who made the great strides to get vape to the point to where it's affordable and effective for almost any smoker/vaper. Sure, ther's always that 500W vaper but it's not easy to cater to that fringe no ris it really all that profitable unless you cater to those that have high disposable incomes, which is only a fraction of that market.

Fact is: China matters. If China were to stop making vape gear tomorrow, the average vaper would be in a world of hurt and the whole industry would suffer as a result.

 

[Tor R]

There are several things that play havoc with the Chinese vape production.

There is hardly one product that is approved by the FDA, if there are any at all.
Europe is moving towards a flavor ban and high taxes as well, it is up for discussion approximately every year, i.e. disposables can be counted on to disappear 100%.
Furthermore, the EU will introduce punitive tariffs on all Chinese goods that are produced with coal-fired power plants as an energy source, starting in 2026.

Then I think the high end will exist, most users there are not afraid to buy vape equipment & expensive juice.
Some Chinese brands I think will continue to exist, those who know it will be bad before it turns around.

 

[TheSingularity]

At worst, I think we may have a Renaissance of quality-made gear and have to go back to mech mods, primarily. No chance the lithium cells will lower in availability, but there is certainly a chance the market won't be flooded with 510 VV/VW devices and $20 pot metal knockoff atomizers.

 

[tj99959]

IDC, The 510's I already have will last the rest of my lifetime.

 

[Rossum]

Sure, ther's always that 500W vaper

Uhm.. I'm a 15-20W vaper.

but it's not easy to cater to that fringe nor is it really all that profitable unless you cater to those that have high disposable incomes, which is only a fraction of that market.

While I admit I have a high disposable income, I bet I've spent less on vaping in the last five years than anyone using disposables, pods, or even any of the low-end China 510 stuff that needs dies on a regular basis. You see, I have bought zero hardware during that time, and I don't expect to buy any every again, excepting some 18650 cells (and even that's not certain because their shelf life in cold storage looks to be quite long).

 

[Rossum]

Not exactly. Technically speaking it's a vaporizer setup, similar to a 'nectar collector'. If you can imagine putting a 300F bit of metal in the bowl of a tobacco pipe, rather than a flame, you're on the right track. No combustion, no embers, just heat enough to evaporate the volatile chemicals.

I wasn't looking at it in terms of combustion vs. vaporization. What I was saying is that quality 510 gear is to disposable vapes what pipes were to cigarettes, in terms of what people purchased.

 

[Rossum]

At worst, I think we may have a Renaissance of quality-made gear and have to go back to mech mods, primarily.

I guess I was ahead of the curve, because that's exactly what I chose to revert to back around 2016 in order to be sure that I was completely FDA-proof. Buy it once, use it forever.

 

[TheSingularity]

Uhm.. I'm a 15-20W vaper.


While I admit I have a high disposable income, I bet I've spent less on vaping in the last five years than anyone using disposables, pods, or even any of the low-end China 510 stuff that needs dies on a regular basis. You see, I have bought zero hardware during that time, and I don't expect to buy any every again, excepting some 18650 cells (and even that's not certain because their shelf life in cold storage looks to be quite long).

I've been vaping at 69W (seriously) for the past two years, haven't purchased any hardware, and mix my own liquid. People paying for vape store stuff are hardly saving money, comparatively, even if all they buy is liquid.

I think - at 6mg/ml - one liter of 100mg/mL (under $200) will make me around 4.5 gallons of liquid. At vape shop prices that would buy you around a liter. Let's say the mixing stuff is an additional $500 for my 4.5g. I'm still calculating a 4.8x markup, and $500 for mixing stuff is a huge overestimate.

Sorry for the rant - I'm all for supporting your local vape shop, but I'm also frugal and pragmatic.

For a bit of contribution that IS on topic, I remember when DIY mech mods was a field which felt almost like the usual. Thinking of that, I know that *I* have some high-quality flush-mount CNC'd 510 connectors which will last me the rest of my life. That doesn't reflect the average experience. My biggest concern is legislation on nicotine concentrate purchases. I only know of one online purveyor who still sells to my state, which may or may not be legal...

 

[englishmick]

I vaguely recall a few years ago there was a rumour that China might stop allowing the export of vape gear. Can't remember the reason behind it, maybe something to do with the high rate of smoking there. That didn't happen. Didn't they restrict the availability of vape domestically instead?

China was moving towards a more open economical model, but under the current dictator they are moving back to central control, so anything is possible. There doesn't have to be an economic reason for stuff to happen. Maybe The Boss stubs his toe on a disposable someone dropped on the sidewalk and vape is history.

Like others here I don't have to worry about it until I hit 100.