FDA Zeller Actually Lets the Truth Slip Out - Let's Pay Attention

[zoiDman]

Lorillard seems to be doing just fine with that..

Lorillard Management Discusses Q1 2014 Results - Earnings Call Transcript | Seeking Alpha


EDIT: Analysts Q&A on page 6...

Lorillard Management Discusses Q1 2014 Results - Earnings Call Transcript | Seeking Alpha

Lorillard Stock is Doing Great. And it pays a Nice Dividend.

There was Talk about Reynolds doing a buy-Out. But that seems to come up about every 2~3 Years.

 

[Katya]

The MAJOR problem the US faces is that there is no credible population-level study which shows what is actually going on with smokers transitioning to vaping.

In the UK the Smoking Toolkit and a nationwide survey by ASH UK are demonstrating beyond argument that gateway concerns are not a concern; that a huge number of smokers have migrated fully to vaping; and that smoking prevalence is being reduced in all socio-economic groups. Similar data is coming out of France.

The CDC cannot be trusted to collect this data - so who might be? I believe that the best course of action is to try to persuade one or other of the alphabet soup to fund Robert West to run a US version of the Toolkit. It's not expensive - the UK version is funded by Cancer Research UK and costs about £125k ($170k approx) per year (it rolls out continuously to pick up trends quickly).

In the meantime, I believe we could inform our lawmakers about the British and French studies:

http://www.ncsct.co.uk/usr/pub/e-cigarette_briefing.pdf

This document has been produced in partnership with Public Health England.

I think we need to forward this to Zeller, CDC, Glantz, Hamburg, McAfee, Burwell and all the members of the Help Committee. Just for starters.

And we may also include this little tidbit:

Latest hard data about ecigs and smoking cessation, from the UK.

The UK stats are regarded as rock-solid due to their source (tobacco control orgs with a known history for honesty in this area), their alignment with other data, and the reputation of the sources. They are also believed to be the most accurate current smoking (and vaping) stats in the world. They are not obscured or adjusted or misrepresented for ideological/commercial reasons as are the CDC's smoking-related stats.

They report that there are 2.1 million UK vapers, and one-third have quit smoking by use of an ecig. In case this is misinterpreted, it means:

• The success rate for smoking cessation in the UK by use of an ecig is 33%
• The number of UK vapers has tripled in the last 2 years [1]
• There are more than 2 million vapers in the UK although some have now totally quit (ceased use of any/all inhalation products)
• About 20% of smokers are now vapers or have totally quit both smoking and vaping by use of an ecig
• About 700,000 vapers have quit smoking by use of an ecig or have totally quit
• So around 7% [2] of UK smokers have quit by use of an ecig, and clearly that number will rise significantly over time
• The number of non-smokers who are regular ecig users is almost unmeasurably small
• The number of minors (under-18s) who are regular ecig users is almost unmeasurably small

These figures come from core tobacco control personnel: ASH ongoing surveys and R West's Smoking Toolkit longitudinal stats.

http://www.ash.org.uk/files/documents/ASH_891.pdf
Latest Statistics - Smoking In England

Oh, and this:

This morning a news article showed up on the site of Le Parisien. In this article they stated that, after questioning some 13.000 school going kids by Dr. Bertrand Dautzenberg, they didn't find that e-cigarettes are a gateway to smoking but rather the opposite since the numbers of kids smoking has dropped significantly over the last three years.

In French: Etude : les ados moins accros au tabac

In 2013 cigarette sales dropped by more than 7.5% here in France... that has never happened before. Wonder how that happened.

 

[Roger_Lafayette]

Oh, and this:

... is what SJ was talking about, although I'm not sure if he's already pursuing it:

E-Cigarette Summit - Prof. Robert West - ECF InfoZone

I'm not sure how this got done in the UK or how we would do it here in the US.

 

[aikanae1]

All I know is that people need to stop daydreaming that this is going to somehow work out with FDA/CDC/BP/BT in control or that there are negotiations open in it's current form. Congress can do something, but are going to reflect what they believe is the populist view, ie. democracy. We have to tell them, inform them, educate them. The FDA isn't going to.

This is a win-win for BT and they aren't going to buy Provape. WSJ quoted Herzog's observation that cigalike users tended to be dual users and those that moved to better equipment (2nd and 3rd gen) tended to quit. I need to find that again. The way she phrased it, I could almost hear a big "thud" (that's not what we want"). She was predicting a downward spiral because people were QUITTING.

I believe she even bracketed her comments with things like 'they were spending money on other things' (i.e. money not removed from the market). That of course, was another "thud".

Why would the Chinese invest in a gamble the FDA has developed? Guess where all the cigalikes are made. They just need to retool and buy more plastics. FT will probably focus on Apple and Samsung and audio equip or whatever else comes along. It would be nice to keep the ride going, but I don't think they are dependant on it. China also has a few other issues. They've been on a capital spending spree to keep their economy afloat. I don't think they'll be picking up much. Dubai might be another story. The "free market" has never existed and it won't as long as corporations are bigger and richer than gov't, i.e. "too big to fail". The corps obviously don't feel that way about the US gov't.

 

[AndriaD]

Ok, apologies, I'm coming rather late to this thread, and haven't yet had the opportunity to read through the replies.

On this specific quotation, notice the emphasis - "completely switch". It's important to note the language, because there is a strong Tobacco Control current of argument which says:

1. Dual use (i.e. cutting down) is not desirable, since it represents the perpetuation of smoking behavior (which otherwise would have disappeared?).

2. E-Cigarettes are only any good for dual use.

The MAJOR problem the US faces is that there is no credible population-level study which shows what is actually going on with smokers transitioning to vaping.

In the UK the Smoking Toolkit and a nationwide survey by ASH UK are demonstrating beyond argument that gateway concerns are not a concern; that a huge number of smokers have migrated fully to vaping; and that smoking prevalence is being reduced in all socio-economic groups. Similar data is coming out of France.

The CDC cannot be trusted to collect this data - so who might be? I believe that the best course of action is to try to persuade one or other of the alphabet soup to fund Robert West to run a US version of the Toolkit. It's not expensive - the UK version is funded by Cancer Research UK and costs about £125k ($170k approx) per year (it rolls out continuously to pick up trends quickly).

An excellent point, and a very good idea... except we can't trust the American Cancer Society, because they're Big Pharma paid stooges, so no way do they want anyone vaping, it might cut into Big Pharma profits on stuff that doesn't work.

Andria

 

[Stosh]

BT is going to buy ProVape or they can't compete....

They developed the Vuse, with electronics to restrict usage to their own matched cartridges, and limit the puffs per cartridge. So they would lack the ability to scale it up to a eGo sized battery, or even larger with a replaceable battery (proprietary of course)? If it would be cost effective and increase market share, it would be done.

It may take them a couple weeks, and cost could soar to the levels of what they find lost in the sofas in the executive lounge.... If any BT company would buy ProVape, it would be only for the trademark name and good will.

 

[zoiDman]

BT is going to buy ProVape or they can't compete....

They developed the Vuse, with electronics to restrict usage to their own matched cartridges, and limit the puffs per cartridge. So they would lack the ability to scale it up to a eGo sized battery, or even larger with a replaceable battery (proprietary of course)? If it would be cost effective and increase market share, it would be done.

It may take them a couple weeks, and cost could soar to the levels of what they find lost in the sofas in the executive lounge.... If any BT company would buy ProVape, it would be only for the trademark name and good will.

That all Free Market Thinking.

And that's Not where were Headed.

 

[Nate760]

They developed the Vuse, with electronics to restrict usage to their own matched cartridges, and limit the puffs per cartridge. So they would lack the ability to scale it up to a eGo sized battery, or even larger with a replaceable battery (proprietary of course)? If it would be cost effective and increase market share, it would be done.

Marketing tagline for Vuse: "Everything you hate about Cigalikes, now even worse."

 

[Bobbilly]

Marketing tagline for Vuse: "Everything you hate about Cigalikes, now even worse."

Yeah but fully compliant with perceived fears and proposed regulations.

 

[Stosh]

That all Free Market Thinking.

And that's Not where were Headed.

Didn't mean to imply a free market, more a BT or BV or a BT/BV combination company, looking to grab market share, additional profit, shark feeding frenzy. Companies with the cash and connections to (underhandedly) deal with the FDA.

 

[Stosh]

Marketing tagline for Vuse: "Everything you hate about Cigalikes, now even worse."

You could use that as your ECF signature....so much better than a counter....

 

[AndriaD]

Marketing tagline for Vuse: "Everything you hate about Cigalikes, now even worse."

Notice how it rhymes with "Ruse"...

Andria

 

[zoiDman]

These are the Two Features that I just Love about the Vuse.

Why doesn't VUSE provide refillable Cartridges?

VUSE pioneered digital vapor cigarette technology to ensure consumers get a perfect puff - each time, every time. VUSE Cartridges were designed with a closed Cartridge system that prevents the consumer from using the cartridges with third party electronic cigarette devices. VUSE intentionally does not offer refillable replacement Cartridges to ensure that our products cannot be modified and in turn, offer only a superior vaping experience.

and

What is the VUSE QuickConnect?

VUSE QuickConnect Cartridges feature a unique interface designed for ease of use. A consumer connects the Cartridge to the PowerUnit, producing a "click." The proprietary interface means only VUSE Cartridges can connect to VUSE PowerUnits, ensuring VUSE standards of quality.

A Chip Enabled, Non-Refillable, Proprietary Interface Carto.

Now that is Progress.

https://vusevapor.com/modules/FooterLinks/ProductFAQ.aspx

 

[AndriaD]

A Chip Enabled, Non-Refillable, Proprietary Interface Carto.

Now that is Progress.

https://vusevapor.com/modules/FooterLinks/ProductFAQ.aspx

It reminds me of when "ISA" (industry standard architecture) had escaped IBM's clutches, and they came out first with PS/2 (which quickly also became somewhat standard) and then MicroChannel... which quickly went the way of Betamax, because it stayed proprietary. Big business just doesn't learn!

Andria

 

[zoiDman]

It reminds me of when "ISA" (industry standard architecture) had escaped IBM's clutches, and they came out first with PS/2 (which quickly also became somewhat standard) and then MicroChannel... which quickly went the way of Betamax, because it stayed proprietary. Big business just doesn't learn!

Andria

My 1st computer was an IBM with an 8088 inside. The Keyboard that was ALL Metal and Weighed about 17lbs. And a Green 12" Monitor. No Hard Drive. Just Dual 5.25" Drives.

But I had 256K of Ram. So I could compile FORTRAN Code in like 4 hours. Where the other people I knew took 6.

So I was a Big Dawg.

LOL

 

[Katya]

A Chip Enabled, Non-Refillable, Proprietary Interface Carto.

Now that is Progress.

This is going to completely befuddle Senator Harkin....

 

[Nate760]

This is going to completely befuddle Senator Harkin....

"This newfangled device confuses me, therefore it must be intended for children."

 

[zoiDman]

This is going to completely befuddle Senator Harkin....

Yeah... He Maybe kinda a Rube. But he knows how to get People to Vote for Him.

Not sure if Exactly what that Means? But I Don't think it is Good.

 

[AndriaD]

My 1st computer was an IBM with an 8088 inside. The Keyboard that was ALL Metal and Weighed about 17lbs. And a Green 12" Monitor. No Hard Drive. Just Dual 5.25" Drives.

But I had 256K of Ram. So I could compile FORTRAN Code in like 4 hours. Where the other people I knew took 6.

So I was a Big Dawg.

LOL

Mine was a Tandy 1000... same 8088, but I had a CGA monitor and 640k! man I thought I was stylin. Still had just the floppies, though I had a 3.5" (720k) and a 5.25" (360k). But in 1990 I ran a BBS on that... by the judicious use of a RAMdisk, since I had no hard drive. At 2400 bps.

Andria

 

[Stosh]

Mine was a Tandy 1000... same 8088, but I had a CGA monitor and 640k! man I thought I was stylin. Still had just the floppies, though I had a 3.5" (720k) and a 5.25" (360k). But in 1990 I ran a BBS on that... by the judicious use of a RAMdisk, since I had no hard drive. At 2400 bps.

Andria

Amateurs...I had the optional 5 meg external HDD....