FDA Big 3 tobacco makers want FDA to ban vapor e-cigs

[Nate760]

BTW - I will make a Prediction, Today. So get out your Chisels and Carve this one in Stone.

I Predict that the RJR Vuse will be one of the 1st FDA Approved e-Cigarettes.

I'll go a step farther than that. Vuse and MarkTen will gain quick approval, then Blu after they agree to drop their non-tobacco flavors. Following that, there will be a minimum six-month period before any non-BT product gains approval, by which time 80 or 90% of the industry will have been starved out of business. The ones who do remain (barely) solvent will be faced with a market in which BT enjoys a de facto monopoly. Maybe a few of the bigger players manage to remain in business (njoy, Halo, V2), but the writing's on the wall. They're up against competitors who have effectively unlimited advertising budgets, a six-month head start, and a nice cozy relationship with the regulatory authorities.

 

[zoiDman]

I'll go a step farther than that. Vuse and MarkTen will gain quick approval, then Blu after they agree to drop their non-tobacco flavors. ...

Blu is kinda a Unusual Situation.

Because as it stands right now, Blu will not go to RJR when RJR acquires Lorillard. Blu is going, if the Tea Leaves are Not Disturbed, to Imperial Tobacco.

Seems Reasonable for Imperial to seek FDA Approval of Blu. But who Knows? Maybe Blu will be Targeted towards Non-Regulated Countries?

 

[Nate760]

Blu is kinda a Unusual Situation.

Because as it stands right now, Blu will not go to RJR when RJR acquires Lorillard. Blu is going, if the Tea Leaves are Not Disturbed, to Imperial Tobacco.

Seems Reasonable for Imperial to seek FDA Approval of Blu. But who Knows? Maybe Blu will be Targeted towards Non-Regulated Countries?

It's an interesting question to be sure. Even though Blu's purported 45% share of the e-cig market has always been fictional (in reality, it's 45% of cigalikes sold at gas stations and convenience stores), it's still the best-selling product in its class by a fairly wide (though dwindling) margin. It would seem, from the perspective of this observer, that the brand's negative word of mouth no longer outweighs the new-user appeal it's been able to enjoy by virtue of spending more on advertising than its four nearest rivals put together. Add to that the fact that the market is becoming increasingly saturated (Vuse and MarkTen within the last three months, and NJoy's new rechargeable within the last three weeks), and it's hard to see Blu as a good long-term play in the US. There are just no trends going in its favor. Imperial is probably doing the right thing in trying aggressively to establish the brand in the UK (where it'll be a lot like Budweiser; people buy it for a few years just because it's a big American brand, then they realize how much it sucks). By then, continental Europeans will want to buy it just because the English and Americans used to buy it.

 

[Kent C]

zoiDman Kent C

I think what you Always have to Remember is RJR does what is Best for RJR. Period. End of Report.

People (including those who run companies) always operate in their own self-interest. As Milton Friedman pointed out - even Mother Teresa

If their Game Plan is Aligned with another Company/Companies, Great. But if it Isn't, then they will Forge Ahead without any Allies.

Of course. But they might seek out allies.

RJR is Hip on "Closed System" e-Cigarettes because it fits them Best. The Vuse Isn't Something that they Just Slapped Together in 2 or 3 Months. And the Choice of a Non-Refillable, Chip Enabled, Proprietary Connection Carto was not a Random Decision.

Hence my earlier comment of 'longer on the tarmac'. Glad you're keep up

They are going to Push the FDA and Law Makers to go this Route. And if it Doesn't Work, and they Can't get the Regs to Support this type of Product, then they will just Sell Regular Hardware Like Everyone Else has.

Perhaps, but the FDA did the pushing and I doubt whether Harkin is 'ok' with the Vuse.

Because they have the Manufacturing/Buying Capabilities to Sell BOTH. And the US Isn't the only Market they wish to make Money in.

Depends on how the deeming comes out. If open systems are available, they might just sell their ecig holdings. But they may try to compete too. Like you say, it's where they can make the most money. Another consideration is 'how it will affect the Master Settlement Agreement.'

 

[zoiDman]

It's an interesting question to be sure. Even though Blu's purported 45% share of the e-cig market has always been fictional (in reality, it's 45% of cigalikes sold at gas stations and convenience stores), it's still the best-selling product in its class by a fairly wide (though dwindling) margin. It would seem, from the perspective of this observer, that the brand's negative word of mouth no longer outweighs the new-user appeal it's been able to enjoy by virtue of spending more on advertising than its four nearest rivals put together. Add to that the fact that the market is becoming increasingly saturated (Vuse and MarkTen within the last three months, and NJoy's new rechargeable within the last three weeks), and it's hard to see Blu as a good long-term play in the US. There are just no trends going in its favor. Imperial is probably doing the right thing in trying aggressively to establish the brand in the UK (where it'll be a lot like Budweiser; people buy it for a few years just because it's a big American brand, then they realize how much it sucks). By then, continental Europeans will want to buy it just because the English and Americans used to buy it.

Yeah... Blu is Kinda a Trip.

You get Outside of the Forums, where the Majority of e-Cigarette Users Exist, and Blu has a Loyal Following. It is Marketed Well. And it has High Name Recognition.

Of Course, once someone Tries Most Other e-Cigarettes, Blu's Shortcomings become Very Apparent. Blu to me is Like B/W TV. It is Absolutely Amazing. Amazing that is Until you see a Color TV. Then it is Very Hard to go Back to B/W.

I have Heard Very Little of what people think Imperial Plans to do with Blu. But then Again, Imperial Doesn't Own Blu yet. So that isn't all that Unusual.

 

[zoiDman]

BTW - I stumbled across this information while researching a "Metals" present in e-Liquid vapor study.

Electronic Cigarette Statistics | Statistic Brain

As with ANY Statistics that do not include information about how the Data was collected, treat it with a Degree of Caution.

 

[Jman8]

I think the ANTZ, Big Pharma, Big Tobacco, and the government all got together years ago and hashed out exactly how this was all going to go down.

I imagine the initial plan did not include Big Tobacco, and was focused on simply getting rid of electronic cigarettes.
Or at the very least handing them over to Big Pharma, should they be interested in them.

But when the FDA lost the NJoy case, they had to formulate a new plan, and bring Big Tobacco in on it.

The new plan probably was all about simply regulating them completely out of existence as tobacco products.
But as the popularity of electronic cigarettes spiraled out of their control, they probably came to realize they couldn't get away with that.

So now I expect them to take the next best route of handing them over to Big Tobacco in a form that drastically reduces their utility.
The ANTZ are probably not thrilled with that, but they realize it is probably necessary to concede that much at this point.


The cornerstones of this plan are easy to identify...
--Contend that we must control what is in them to keep them safe
--Contend that we must remove the flavors to keep the children away from them

What you are left with follows quickly and easily from there...
--Tamper-proof prefilled cartridges only
--Tobacco and menthol flavors only
--Proprietary devices that can not be tampered with

This is the only clear path that makes everybody reasonably happy and keeps the money rolling in.
And it's really the only logical conclusion I can envision.

I'm pretty sure the now leadership of CASAA and Bill G. were at those original meetings, to help appease the simpletons (you and me) in the process. This would help explain their under effectiveness in the process to date. Now it all makes sense.

I'm still wondering how they got black market operatives to get on board with all this, but of course they did that.

And it's really weird how I think I am currently flavor exploring and choosing my flavors when all along it's been them pulling the strings and creating an illusion of freedom of choice.

 

[Jman8]

Moving past the conspiracy theories, which may or may not be spot on (I think they are off base), I feel it is mostly about big business (and government) playing catch up on market that was driven (visibly) by a once unknown consumer segment. Now they (big guys) think they know that market. IMO, no one has firm grasp on it, but now that it is raking in billions, people are tripping over themselves to appear like they are that which has firmest grasp. BG gets advantage of grasping with authority of law behind it, and with belief that Congress (at one time) fully supports their grasping. The consumer segment, that is really driving the market, doesn't really care to grasp entire market, but does care to continue driving, exploring, expanding options. Ergo, demand is exponentially growing, and supply will be there in one form or another.

I'm one that brings up 'black market' often. Did so in my FDA comments. And as noted there, this market will come about because of what sort of conditions are set by them who are zealous in this market and seek to (entirely) control that which is beyond their grasp. The zealots seek to eliminate option(s) and thus make illusion of control appear easier. If/when black market comes about, they will cross that bridge when it comes, and exercise extreme deniability that they played any role in creating those conditions. IMO, they will be directly responsible, and visibly if one looks at things as they are now or what history may show years down the road when current propaganda machines are less influential.

BT has had to operate in other 'tobacco' market with zealots for awhile. Would say more on this, but it would mean me speaking what I see as truth, but would likely be perceived as insult to a great many ex-users of BT products. At any rate, one quote from the article cited in OP, helps with perspective I'm conveying here:

“Such equal treatment will ensure that all such products meet the health and safety requirements that FDA determines are necessary to safeguard and promote the public health.”

This said by Reynolds. And this said years, if not decades, after this company was put in their place, politically, to conform to societal standards for how can any adult recreational product make it in a world where zealots rule the nest. In a world where MSA makes sense to a whole bunch of people, including a prominent member of ECF who still thinks it didn't go far enough.

So, Reynolds wants the eCig playing field leveled and advocates for (appearance of) equality. All under the false name of 'safety' and shielding our children from a market that historically has had great appeal to them. And instead of all of us realizing that all of us are doing this to the kids, let us just scapegoat a few entities in the process and let the chips fall where they may.

 

[DC2]

I have Heard Very Little of what people think Imperial Plans to do with Blu. But then Again, Imperial Doesn't Own Blu yet. So that isn't all that Unusual.

Keep in mind that British American Tobacco (BAT) bought out Intellicig quite some time ago.

And as far as I know Intellicig was the first company to start down the medical device approval route.
I believe NJoy is also following this path outside of the United States.

It does seem to make sense for Imperial to look towards a future where outside of the United States this would be the preferred route to take.

 

[zoiDman]

Keep in mind that British American Tobacco (BAT) bought out Intellicig quite some time ago.

And as far as I know Intellicig was the first company to start down the medical device approval route.
I believe NJoy is also following this path outside of the United States.

It does seem to make sense for Imperial to look towards a future where outside of the United States this would be the preferred route to take.

Very Good Point DC2.

---

BTW - Is it Hot Enough for you Today? If Not, Sunday/Monday is Supposed to be Hotter. Will this Summer Ever End?

 

[Bill Godshall]

As I've delineated in many posts on ECF, the FDA deeming regulation would ban >99% of e-cig products, including all e-liquid and open tank components.

And as I've delineated in my posts about Altria, Lorillard and Reynolds urging FDA to impose the deeming regulation, all three companies have essentially urged the FDA to ban all e-liquid and open tank components. But Reynolds did so explicitly.

 

[Nate760]

As I've delineated in many posts on ECF, the FDA deeming regulation would ban >99% of e-cig products, including all e-liquid and open tank components.

I don't think, even at the height of its ineptitude, the US government will actually be stupid enough to go this route. This would be a scenario in which you're making illegal drug users of little old ladies who just want to quit smoking, and it would require opening up an entirely new front in the War on Drugs, with the DEA needing a multi-billion dollar special appropriation each year just to enforce nicotine crimes. Then, on top of that, you're going to be increasing the prison population in a society that already imprisons 1% of its citizens. Even at my most cynical, I refuse to believe American society at large is going to tolerate seeing people thrown in jail because they tried to quit smoking.

 

[zoiDman]

I don't think, even at the height of its ineptitude, the US government will actually be stupid enough to go this route. This would be a scenario in which you're making illegal drug users of little old ladies who just want to quit smoking, and it would require opening up an entirely new front in the War on Drugs, with the DEA needing a multi-billion dollar special appropriation each year just to enforce nicotine crimes. Then, on top of that, you're going to be increasing the prison population in a society that already imprisons 1% of its citizens. Even at my most cynical, I refuse to believe American society at large is going to tolerate seeing people thrown in jail because they tried to quit smoking.

I think People are Confusing the Banning of the Sale of a Product with the Criminalization of Possession of a Product.

 

[Jman8]

People are also confusing the dictionary term and common sense definition of "banning" with the way Bill G. and other ECF'ers mean that term. Here it means "de facto ban" which is translated as - BT and BP colluded to corner the market by telling the FDA precisely what products are acceptable to be marketed / distributed and which ones must be denied acceptability.

So the " >99% of e-cig products" is all products that BT and/or BP don't wish to become acceptable. Regardless of how well the market applications are filled out, they will be denied.

And once they are denied, they will disappear from existence within days, maybe months. Black market operatives will stay away from them because even though demand is really really high, they don't want anything to do with them. Cause, you know, that's how the black market works.

 

[Nate760]

And once they are denied, they will disappear from existence within days, maybe months. Black market operatives will stay away from them because even though demand is really really high, they don't want anything to do with them. Cause, you know, that's how the black market works.

If there's anything black marketeers hate, it's selling high-demand products at huge profit margins.

 

[Smok-ey]

I buy draino, kids take draino under the sink, where most people put this item or maybe in a cupboard high on top shelf, kid gets access to it, takes a glass of draino with Oreo cookies... good advertisement for Nabisco by the way, and die.

Accident or draino company's fault?

I got the perfect solution... just store your stuff in a secure location and hope your kid(s) dont drink it...

 

[GreekLion]

They will not get banned. Not because some don't want them banned, but because it is too big. While there isn't as much research pertaining to safety to build a legal case, ......... laws and punishments are continuously becoming more lax, and it would be very hard to ban e-cigs and legalize ......... in the same room.

Big tobacco has nothing, the DOJ seems to hate big tobacco from all the verdicts they have handed down. A merchant of death shouldn't advise on public health just as a fat man shouldn't teach a professional athlete how to diet and exercise.

Look at what a ban would cover - importers, manufacturers, vendors, and users. Millions of Americans. Many jobs would be lost, law enforcement would be further taxed than it already is, and no one stands to benefit but big tobacco, and even that is a small margin.

Vaping is here to stay, but it's up to us to make it mainstream and get legal recognition and rights.