FDA Business way down because of 8-8??

[sofarsogood]

By that Study, it reports that 20% of those 10th- and 12th-grade students who used an e-Cigarette used Nicotine.

Do you think that the General Public, Lawmakers and or the FDA is going to Change their Views on e-Cigarettes based on this Percentile?

Even if this Percentile is an Accurate representation of the True Population?

I think they have to stop saying they are protecting kids from nicotine if most kid vapers aren't using nicotine. I've thought about what I would do if I had a kid in the house who wanted to vape. I might say okay but I choose the device, only at home, no nicotine, and the watts can't be higher than your age. A low powered device with no nicotine is getting down to toy status. If that satisfied their curiosity about smoking it was worth it. May be we would learn to rebuild--science class. And why not get deep into batteries, watts law, and ohm's law, Then there is learning wire guages. Let's research resistanc wires and alloys. Is that too much to ask for being allowed to blow a few smoke rings?

 

[zoiDman]

I think they have to stop saying they are protecting kids from nicotine if most kid vapers aren't using nicotine. I've thought about what I would do if I had a kid in the house who wanted to vape. I might say okay but I choose the device, only at home, no nicotine, and the watts can't be higher than your age. A low powered device with no nicotine is getting down to toy status. If that satisfied their curiosity about smoking it was worth it. May be we would learn to rebuild--science class. And why not get deep into batteries, watts law, and ohm's law, Then there is learning wire guages. Let's research resistanc wires and alloys. Is that too much to ask for being allowed to blow a few smoke rings?

They say it because it is a Very Effective way to Sway Public Opinion.

It doesn't matter if it is True or Not. Or if what the FDA is doing will be Effective or Not. It's just a Way to Influence Public Opinion.

 

[zoiDman]

... A low powered device with no nicotine is getting down to toy status. If that satisfied their curiosity about smoking it was worth it. May be we would learn to rebuild--science class. And why not get deep into batteries, watts law, and ohm's law, Then there is learning wire guages. ...

BTW - I'm I perceiving this Correctly?

Are you say'n that we should take Public Funds and then Teach Coil Building in a HS Science Class?

 

[sofarsogood]

In the mean time what's really happening to the US vape business sales and volume wise? It is usually true that the faster something grows the faster it will decline when there is a decline. May be this is an industry wide breather.

 

[sofarsogood]

BTW - I'm I perceiving this Correctly?

Are you say'n that we should take Public Funds and then Teach Coil Building in a HS Science Class?

There can be 'science class' at home.

 

[zoiDman]

There can be 'science class' at home.

OK... I'm with you on That.

And I was 94.7% Positive you Didn't mean that it would be Taught in a Public School. LOL.

 

[retired1]

May be this is an industry wide breather.

It's doubtful. There are signs that it's in a downward spiral. Much of that can be attributed to the deeming regulations and recent state law passages that make it virtually impossible for businesses to stay in business.

 

[sofarsogood]

It's doubtful. There are signs that it's in a downward spiral. Much of that can be attributed to the deeming regulations and recent state law passages that make it virtually impossible for businesses to stay in business.

I've been out of town for several months so haven't visited the vape shop I stop at sometimes. I looked on their facebook page and it looks like business as usual and it appears their branch stores are all still open. So no crash in my home area so far. My brother who lives near Bloomfield NJ discovered a few months ago that the shop where he bought is N mini coils was closed. There was an ecig start up in the rural town near me that closed before I could visit it. But retail is a revolving door of stores opening and closing. I don't believe hundreds of thousands or millions of vapers suddenly stopped consuming their usual amount of e liquid and it's hard to believe there is a flood of people going to DIY but I'd love to know more.

 

[Ed_C]

BTW - I'm I perceiving this Correctly?

Are you say'n that we should take Public Funds and then Teach Coil Building in a HS Science Class?

Don't be silly, that's engineering not science. Well, maybe a STEM class.

 

[Semiretired]

Considering the Deeming Regulations were released in May, I could see sales starting to decline the following month as shops decided it wasn't worth it.

And they decided to just sell out their stock. I am sure many had enough stock to take a while to sell out...

 

[Lessifer]

I've been out of town for several months so haven't visited the vape shop I stop at sometimes. I looked on their facebook page and it looks like business as usual and it appears their branch stores are all still open. So no crash in my home area so far. My brother who lives near Bloomfield NJ discovered a few months ago that the shop where he bought is N mini coils was closed. There was an ecig start up in the rural town near me that closed before I could visit it. But retail is a revolving door of stores opening and closing. I don't believe hundreds of thousands or millions of vapers suddenly stopped consuming their usual amount of e liquid and it's hard to believe there is a flood of people going to DIY but I'd love to know more.

Remember that if there are 3 million vapers in the US, at least 50% of those people have never set foot in a "vape shop." Instead they use what they can get at c-stores and gas stations. Now, the other 50%, which is now a smaller pool, these are the potential B&M customers. Some B&M's have always followed the retail model, meaning they simply resell liquid in pre-packaged bottles. For the most part these businesses have been untouched for now, unless their states have passed legislation, like PA, or IN. The other stores, the ones who have had as their business model mixing liquid in house for pennies on the dollar and selling it, these are the ones who have been affected and these are the ones who would be the main wholesale customers of the vendor who sparked this thread.

Many shops have decided to stop mixing in house. Some have moved to outsourcing the manufacture of their liquid, and it is doubtful that they would be using the same suppliers. Some have chosen to switch over to the retail model, abandoning their liquid lines.

Perhaps what was meant by "sales have dropped 50%" is that "profits have dropped 50%" which would absolutely be expected if a B&M switched from mixing to retail only.

 

[Semiretired]

Perhaps what was meant by "sales have dropped 50%" is that "profits have dropped 50%" which would absolutely be expected if a B&M switched from mixing to retail only.

I have seen a couple and heard of a couple that have advertised that they were making the switch and had a big sale on their in house stock to get out of that line of the business.

 

[Grimwald]

I suspect the industry was thriving on an influx of new customers. That is really important because many would go to diy liquid and coils after some time. An older vaper would likely have more substantial 18650 mods. I just don't have any real need to go into a local vape shop after 4 years of vaping.

 

[collinsmcrae]

Yeah, except there's more new products in the pipes than every before.

I said "without the promise pf new products...", not that there aren't any currently. People people have stocked up, learned to DIY, and mentally prepared for themselves for the worse case scenario. It doesn't surprise me in the least that retailers are taking major hits this early. In fact, it's what I had anticipated would happen.

 

[swampergene]

I must live on a different planet. I'm in the Lehigh Valley PA area - yes PA where we have the 40% tax coming in a month - and I have yet to see a shop close or even threaten to close. While at its core wrong and unfair, the tax itself targeting wholesale prices is more of a nuisance than anything and reputable shops are already prepared to absorb some of it so the consumer is not seeing huge price increases. Actually my own fear is that unscrupulous shops will actually use the tax to MAKE money - I've seen one already tell a customer that a $20 bottle of juice is going up to $28 dollars which is a pure ripoff using the tax as justification. And parts - not even addressed in the PA tax regs - also being "taxed" by vendors either in confusion or intentionally. We have shops who continue to open new locations and while the FDA deeming regs would likely kill the industry come 2018...they are making more than enough money now to consider the risk worthwhile even if only for two years. The sky is not falling just yet.

 

[collinsmcrae]

If we were having this conversation 3 Month from now, I think lack of New Products would be More Applicable.

I was saying that the prospect of the market freeze has caused people people to tighten up, regardless of last minute, half baked products that will continue rolling out over the next few months. For instance, I did a bit of stock piling like everyone else, I've gone 100% DIY over the bast 6 months, and for the first time in 4 years I haven't bought a single vaping related item in over 2 months. If enough people are like me, a 2 month dry spell of our collective dollars could certainly factor in to losses.

 

[Ed_C]

I said "without the promise pf new products...", not that there aren't any currently. People people have stocked up, learned to DIY, and mentally prepared for themselves for the worse case scenario. It doesn't surprise me in the least that retailers are taking major hits this early. In fact, it's what I had anticipated would happen.

I know what you said, I just meant that there's going to be new products for a least a couple more months. People here, at least some of them, have stocked up and learned to DIY, but I'm not convinced that this is the norm. But, maybe it is. I just asked a vaper I know from someplace else online, what she thought about all this, and she had no clue. Deeming what? I do think there's going to be a drop off in new vapers that know about this and think, why bother, it's all going away soon.

 

[sofarsogood]

Remember that if there are 3 million vapers in the US, at least 50% of those people have never set foot in a "vape shop." Instead they use what they can get at c-stores and gas stations. Now, the other 50%, which is now a smaller pool, these are the potential B&M customers. Some B&M's have always followed the retail model, meaning they simply resell liquid in pre-packaged bottles. For the most part these businesses have been untouched for now, unless their states have passed legislation, like PA, or IN. The other stores, the ones who have had as their business model mixing liquid in house for pennies on the dollar and selling it, these are the ones who have been affected and these are the ones who would be the main wholesale customers of the vendor who sparked this thread.

Many shops have decided to stop mixing in house. Some have moved to outsourcing the manufacture of their liquid, and it is doubtful that they would be using the same suppliers. Some have chosen to switch over to the retail model, abandoning their liquid lines.

Perhaps what was meant by "sales have dropped 50%" is that "profits have dropped 50%" which would absolutely be expected if a B&M switched from mixing to retail only.

Okay, RTS sells to shops that mix their own. If they stop mixing they stop buying nic and customers find alternatives.

Just 3 million vapers and only half using open system? 3 million seems low. Where did I get 8 million?

 

[Lessifer]

Okay, RTS sells to shops that mix their own. If they stop mixing they stop buying nic and customers find alternatives.

Just 3 million vapers and only half using open system? 3 million seems low. Where did I get 8 million?

I've seen estimates ranging from 2.5 million to 9 million, though I think the 9 million is England/Europe maybe? It all starts to run together after awhile.

As for the 50%, I'll admit that's a guess, since no one is tracking vape shop sales. The point being that it's a smaller population, so the effects could be more noticeable.

 

[EddardinWinter]

I suspect the industry was thriving on an influx of new customers. That is really important because many would go to diy liquid and coils after some time. An older vaper would likely have more substantial 18650 mods. I just don't have any real need to go into a local vape shop after 4 years of vaping.

This was exactly my point. The lack of new vapers is a killer.

Many shops have decided to stop mixing in house. Some have moved to outsourcing the manufacture of their liquid, and it is doubtful that they would be using the same suppliers. Some have chosen to switch over to the retail model, abandoning their liquid lines.

This is certainly true in some cases, but my local vapor chain continues to mix and distribute their own lines.

Unfortunately, these days they are doing very little mixing and distributing, because the liquid just isn't moving. It's really a shame. These guys opened a shop 2 years ago and now have dozens of stores all over the state. Their mixing facility (a certified clean room) is right around the corner from my office.

EDIT CORRECTION: They have over 70 stores in six states.

They stopped building/opening stores in May. They have already closed two. They will have half of them closed by the end of the year. They have no plans to even attempt the application process.

As designed, the scheme that the FDA has for application is much to difficult and expensive unless you are a very large company....you know, like a major tobacco manufacturer.