Thank you rolygate. I'm going to use that number. Is there an estimate of the number of people currently using e-cigs? That's the number I'd really like to have. ......................
Yes, there is my estimate
Unfortunately the facts are bit hard to get hold of. Basically, we only have ecig facts for the UK, due entirely to Prof West. According to him, a little while back there were 2.1 million UK vapers.
You could probably guess at about the same each for Germany and France. The Italy vapers forum has bigger traffic than the UK ones. At a guess I'd say 8 or 10 million for Europe.
Quite recently, people were saying that there were only 2 million vapers in the US, which made me fall about laughing. Then last month they admitted to 6 million, which I still regard as a laughable underestimate - unless of course you can explain the huge difference in the US and UK market size (US $2 billion, UK £200 million) by some sort of weirdness like perhaps US vapers each spend $100,000 a year on vaping. I don't think so. I would be amazed if there were any less than 8 million US vapers. Unless of course they all spend 3 cents a year on vaping.
ROTW - who knows how many in the rest of the world. There are plenty in Russia, Japan, the Philippines, and wherever you look you'll find vapers. They even have a sizeable contingent in Costa Rica. In some places such as Singapore, where the government is frantic to protect tobacco tax revenues and executes anyone who disagrees, vapers have to risk death to avoid risking death (if you see what I mean...). Let's call it another 5 million for the ROTW.
So anywhere between 20 to 25 million for the global total seems about right. If you look at the factory turnovers in China you can see there are tens of millions of vapers out there - five years ago some China factories were turning over >$30m a year and things are just a little bigger now. And you have to multiply that ex-factory revenue by 5 as an average to get the western value at retail.
Ecigs were first sold in the west by Greg Carson, who in 2005 sold the Electro-... brand in the UK. By early 2006 there were a thousand or so vapers in the UK. In late 2006, ecigs were introduced to the USA. By 2007 the market was appreciable, and ECF was founded - SJ wanted to discuss the products and there wasn't anywhere else. By 2008 ecigs were hot, and by late 2009 even the pharmaceutical industry had heard of them. The tobacco industry figured it was a fad, until around 2012. Even in 2013 Imperial Tobacco was dismissing them as a passing fad that would soon disappear, and paying for anti-ecig propaganda just like everyone else; then in 2014 they bought anything that was ecig-related and not bolted down, including a whole bunch of patents and the guy who invented ecigs.
So as regards the total user-years we have now, 50 million may be a bit light, but it's an easily defensible number. Far higher of course than the Chantix userbase or user-year equivalent, and with about 99.999999999999999% less in the way of serious adverse events.
Question for mosspa if he cares to answer. Is the science we are discussing influencing the FDA or are they as superficial and political as the public health officials?
You are asking him something he cannot possibly be qualified to answer. He may have an opinion, but if you want to know the detail, it would be better to ask Greg Conley of CASAA or Lou Ritter of AEMSA, who deal with them almost daily. Or Prof Siegel, or Philips, or the ACSH.
Or just google 'regulatory capture fda', 'chantix fda' and see what you find.