Vaping will go mainstream in 5 years according to Forum Statistics.

[niczgreat]

These are new users who signed up for the forum.
I was a little lazy and my figures exclude 1 day so the figures are very close but not 100% accurate.

2,304 in 2008
22,368 in 2009
23,352 in 2010
25,322 in 2011
30,000+ in 2012*
*14,977 in first 6 months of 2012 or 30k per year
2588 from July 19 to August 19 (Velocity still running stronger at 31k per year)

My analysis is that in 2009 the forum caught on and grew astoundingly by 10 fold. Let's not count the difference between 2008 and 2009 because the Forum had just began and possibly a portion of the pool of users was already their, or it was the beginning year of vaping becoming known. In any case the number is skewed and not indicative of long term growth.

The difference between 2009 and 2010 was a little higher by 5%, Diference between 20010 and 2011 was 8.4% than in 2012 e-cigs are really catching on if we double the January to June figure (assuming that membership enrollment will go at the same pace) we are going to add 30,000 new members this year or more than a 19% increase from 2011 figures. To back this up I took the past months figures and show that velocity continues to grow.

Where it will be fascinating is if in 2013 we see a 40% increase!!!


My premise is that new members of the forum are a reflection on the growth of vaping as a whole. Excluding 2008 - 2009 figures we see a 5% growth (2009 to 2010) than 8.4% (2010-2011) than 20% Year 2012. we are looking at the percentage almost doubling every year since 2009.

Assuming that this is a trend that will continue than we are talking about vaping going mainstream within 5 years.

 

[alphanumeric]

Cool info to know.

 

[dragonbone]

Wow! Very interesting!

 

[18SixFifty]

To get an accurate picture you can't include 2008.

 

[Butters78]

Tom... you actually are great!

 

[AutumnWolf]

Really hope this trend continues!

 

[niczgreat]

To get an accurate picture you can't include 2008.

I agree and thanks for pointing out that my post didn't state that clearly enough.
I've edited it to be clearer.

 

[niczgreat]

Really hope this trend continues!

I believe that it will.
Some of the barriers to the growth of Vaping are falling by the wayside.

When I began in 2009 the sophistication of the equipment was nothing like today. Even the premium brands of e-cigs personal Vaporizers were problematic. The selection of e-liquid was almost all Chinese and tasted perfumy and artificial. The Atomizer/cartomizer solutions were crude.

In 2012
In terms of equipment, there is still room for improvement but a user can buy a medium quality problem free unit and get involved in vaping for under $100.00. Or buy the best for under $250.00.

I spent a fortune in my first 1 1/2 years until the Provari came out. Even the very expensive vaping units were a PIA (Pain in the a.r.s.e). The Provari was the first Variable Vape unit that was rock solid. Yes it is/was expensive but it offered value. Pay a premium price one time and purchase a trouble free unit. I consider the Provari a milestone in vaping. It was the first (arguably) mass produced glitch free device
In 2012 there are some economical solutions like the Ego Twist offering a great value, without the flexibility and bells and whistles of the Provari. There is still a lot of junk out their but a saavy buyer can find quality units. That was very difficult in 2009

Back in 2009 you could spend over $100.00 and end up with a crap unit anyway. They hadn't ironed out the kinks. I really hate to think of all the potential vapers who tried it and quit because of the crap they were selling back in 2009.

I stuck with it because, not only did I enjoy it, but I decided that it would save my life. Cigarettes will definitely kill you. Vaping just made sense as a less harmful alternative.

I'd like to illustrate the problem with the equipment back than.
I tried the Prodigy 1 and Prodigy 2 from Puresmoker $100.00+ Units, neither lasted more than 3-6 months and borchu problems. They said they'd fix the problems of the v1 in the v2. NOT!!

I finally ponied up for a Golden Greek $175.00 this was a quality mechanical unit. I can still remember searching the floor for the spring on the button which kept popping out. Can you imagine a $175.00 unit with the button always popping off, disgraceful. It lasted around 9 months.

Than the nhaler around 1 month and $70.00 along with 2-3 units whose name I can't even remember but didn't last a month. Are you getting the picture.?

I ponied up for a Provari and it worked flawlessly for 15 months, than the new lr atomizers destroyed the circuit board. It had a 2.5 amp limit and that wasn't enough for the new generation. Still 15 months is very reasonable. Everyone lauds the quality of the Provari but really how long has it been out. Well a veteran trying it at the beginning saw a 15 month Lifespan.

The advent of Clearomizers like the Vivi Nova and Vision Line have added a new dimension to Vaping. You no longer have to constantly keep your atomizer or cartridge wet. To those who don't like doing alot of work they are perfect. Fill once or twice a day and vape to your hearts content. This convenience is contributing to a Superior Vaping Experience and will increase the overall satisfaction for Newbies trying vaping.

Back in 2009 atomizers with Fiberfill ruled. They were hard to fill. Didn't last long and in my opinion don't offer the clean taste of the Clearomizers. We used to have tricks like the straw method. You cut down a coffee stirrer and put it in the side of the cartomizer to allow air to flow to the bottom. I mean really getting the equipment to work right was a real chore.

In 2012 there are many many companies to go to with creating great tasting e-liquids. In 2009 your only choice was re-branded D-Kang. Alright, I'm exagerating a little but not much. E- Liquid quality and variety has increased tremendously since 2009.


If I see a barrier in 2012 it's the shoddy, inconsistent, quality that is still coming from the majority of Chinese Equipment Manufacturers.

Recently while my Provari was in the shop, I bought a Mini Lava Tube that just about burst into flames, and than the replacement decided not to recognize any carts.
On the flip side I found and American BoxMod called the Smokbox Varicool for $56.00 and while it doesn't have the bells and whistles of the Provari it vapes like a champ.

The reviews of Battery doors that jam on the Smoketech Gripper and other hit and miss quality flaws are legion.

So in 2012 the following are available if you research carefully and listen to the Forum Advise.

1. Quality Personal Vaporizers. 2. Quality Cartomizers/Clearomizers 3. Tasty inexpensive Liquids.

This improvement of the vaping technology is going to pave the way for increased customer satisfaction and the growth of vaping.

 

[Salt&PePPer]

That is a lot of people. I wonder how many of us who registered from last month, July,.are active members? Or even how many of us even have 5 forum postings to get us out of the newbs forum?

 

[thinkingaboutit]

That is a lot of people. I wonder how many of us who registered from last month, July,.are active members? Or even how many of us even have 5 forum postings to get us out of the newbs forum?

I got my five posts in...

Like any forum, many are here for weeks to get started and come back when they have questions. A low percentage make it regular.

 

[niczgreat]

I got my five posts in...

Like any forum, many are here for weeks to get started and come back when they have questions. A low percentage make it regular.

It's not about how many stay. It's about statistics. A certain percentage will successfully make the switch to vaping. Than don't forget all the people who never register for the forum and are vaping without it being known to us through the forum.

These numbers are an indicator of a demographic.

 

[Trilly]

When vaping does become mainstream (as I believe it will) do you think it will make the experiance better or worse? will it become over regulated thus limiting the selection of juice etc? That is my main concern, how it is now is great, the selection of everything is good and there is new and better coming at us all the time, I just hope that the powers that be don't take all the enjoyment out of it

 

[bmrdave]

I got my five posts in...

Like any forum, many are here for weeks to get started and come back when they have questions. A low percentage make it regular.

I was like that. I tried to start in late 2010/early 2011. Joined here in May 11. But I gave up because of various reasons. Started again July this year, came back here, and could not believe the advancements made in just the past year. The clearomizers have changed everything. I was always wondering with the cartomizers if I was running out or just needed time for the juice to make it to the coil. It was frustrating. The tank and clear type stuff back then was always a leaky mess from what I read then. I've tried several now, and haven't had a one leak yet. Make the gear this reliable and easy to use, and this will go mainstream. Not to mention the stuff available in convenience stores now though considered overpriced here is competitive with cigarettes price-wise.

 

[Salt&PePPer]

Like Wow, 779 post between the day you registered in June and Today in August. That is a Shmeg load of posting.

Personally I Don't know if I could be THAT constructive in 779 post?

 

[potholerepairman]

It's not about how many stay. It's about statistics. A certain percentage will successfully make the switch to vaping. Than don't forget all the people who never register for the forum and are vaping without it being known to us through the forum.

These numbers are an indicator of a demographic.

Great chart,my guess would be that the number of people vaping may be tenfold to the chart(taken out of thin air by me, and I hope is close to right) as its so much more user freindly than before that a much smaller percentage of vapors use forums if they do not have as many issues.Years back it was a lot of work to make it work, things like finding pet stores that carry the right foam doesn't exist as much today.This forum certainly made the movement move in leaps and bounds and should get the credit it earned.It was kinda a requirement to read this forum to even be able to successfully vape for me years back.

 

[niczgreat]

Great chart,my guess would be that the number of people vaping may be tenfold to the chart(taken out of thin air by me, and I hope is close to right) as its so much more user freindly than before that a much smaller percentage of vapors use forums if they do not have as many issues.Years back it was a lot of work to make it work, things like finding pet stores that carry the right foam doesn't exist as much today.This forum certainly made the movement move in leaps and bounds and should get the credit it earned.It was kinda a requirement to read this forum to even be able to successfully vape for me years back.

Remember Fluval and the search for the perfect wicking polyfill!!
By the way Potholerepairman I noticed you joined in 2009, you should come and say hello to the old timers on
http://www.e-cigarette-forum.com/forum/ecf-veterans-forum/317227-anyone-else-still-around-08-09-a.html

 

[niczgreat]

.This forum certainly made the movement move in leaps and bounds and should get the credit it earned.It was kinda a requirement to read this forum to even be able to successfully vape for me years back.

Unless you have friends in the know, I still believe that it's necessary to go to the forum to find the latest and greatest and best. Although they just opened two Vape Shops around 40 minutes from me.

Maybe that'll change when every city has a Vape Shop and you can see, feel, try the equipment and juices!

 

[niczgreat]

When vaping does become mainstream (as I believe it will) do you think it will make the experiance better or worse? will it become over regulated thus limiting the selection of juice etc? That is my main concern, how it is now is great, the selection of everything is good and there is new and better coming at us all the time, I just hope that the powers that be don't take all the enjoyment out of it

I agree that's the biggest danger. Now we have so many choices,if it becomes mainstream will big tobacco try to monopolize it. Will the Government decide to regulate it and tax it. Will they limit the strength of the liquid we buy, the type of Cartomizers we use. Will they try to package them in a cigarette size 10 to a pack and make DIY illegal.

Right now we are somewhat under the radar, what happens if there are millions of us?

 

[kiwivap]

Great post Tom, thanks for doing the leg work and posting the figures. I've been wondering if vaping will hit exponential growth. Maybe... It's certainly becoming more well known and growing.

 

[irwink]

My rough guage for how many more people are trying e-cigs is the number of people listed as viewing the new users forum. At any given time there are about twice as many people viewing than when I joined.