My answer to all your other points is that it is pure conjecture on your part. There is nothing that supports your hypothesis, that our ability to vape as we do today with the Deeming Regulations unchanged, is probable. I find all of your points exceedingly vague.
Might help if you quote my posts in entirety, rather than excerpts. I strongly believe I am giving more detailed rationale to points I make than those on the side that say "black market is not a solution" and leave things at that.
It would help if you would get much more specific as to how a black market would work, with no risk to anyone involved, as well as not cost an arm and a leg as you suggest.
Would be rather impossible to construct a black market scenario with 'no risk involved to anyone.' Can't even do that with the current legal market, but you are asking for the impossible under black market scenario.
Challenging also to say what black market will look like for you, plus challenging to offer genuine help in thread where I reckon people are looking to dismiss that option as a genuine way to obtain product under quasi-strict regulations. Also, just challenging to offer specifics about overcoming legal restrictions on an open forum. But, if genuinely interested in list of scenarios I see as viable going forward, feel free to PM me.
In general, I think you'll find local means via friends that strike you as slightly risky, but are basically trusted sources, and are not dangerous. Also plausible you'll find it online with sites that are either blatantly attempting to circumvent the restrictions or doing so in way that they realize may be questionable, but worth the risk from their end given high product demand. I also think China will on the surface give lip service to US restrictions, but have enough places online that appear like China laughs in the face of US policy on this matter.
In general, I would say that there will be a transition period that likely lasts months, if not years, and that all current vendors will be possibly willing to engage in gray-ish market where it is risky for both buyer and seller, pending outcome of litigation, but transactions will occur. The moment it becomes too risky for seller, means those products will go to places where buyers will be found, but might not be easily found via internet search engines.
On your point that the government will not be able to stop easy access to liquid nicotine, it would be easy for them to attack it from a financial processing standpoint. I think that should be obvious from the Paypal situation in the US. Why does Paypal refuse to support any vaping purchases in this country? Not due to any threat from the government. Just one little ANTZ group said "boo" and Paypal folded like a paper napkin. What would they have done if the US government had sent them a letter???
I reckon we are at least 5 years, and probably closer to a decade away from it being impossible to get liquid nic via online order. May never occur, and I imagine backdoor channels will be available forever via the net. Again, don't need for everyone to have source product for black market to operate efficiently.
Also, don't need internet to find it locally. Though, even then, I'm sure net will be used, but not for finding specific places that you can type in 'liquid nic' and get local results.
Now I know you are going to say there will be "work arounds" but I would like you to be more specific on how that would work, how it will not effect cost and who will be providing these work arounds.
It is challenging to say how costs will be effected, yet not impossible to conclude that it won't be drastic changes on cost. Here in the legal market we have sellers offering liquid at around $1 per ml, and finding buyers willing to pay that. Black market isn't one homogenous group, so there may be sellers at $1 per ml, while others find comfortable profit margin at 25 cents per ml.
One of the ways I see underground market being established is if all current vendors are allowed to operate legally, but all are in agreement that to keep things legal, it must be taxed up the wazoo, so that buyers are buying product around $1 per ml. I see an underground market cutting into that, which won't be necessarily more popular than legal market, but will allow a segment of the purchasing population to get decent product closer to 50 cents per ml.
I currently do not see an underground market being established because liquid nicotine is deemed illegal for sale anywhere in the US. I feel if that scenario were to arise, it would be at least 5 years from now, and more like a decade away.
And all this, is currently known to black market players. In fact, I could see black market people being those who favor bans, as they would stand to benefit greatly under such a scenario.