Dorian: here we go again!

[Iffy]

Regardless where it lands on da east coast, God be with you.

Over here on da SunCoast, we know Dorian won't be anything like Irma, two years ago. Personally, by da time he gets over here, it will be much like one of our summer afternoon 'blow ups'.

BTW, we certainly don't need mo' rain over here...

Just hoping y'all over 'yonder' are taking this VERY seriously!!!


ETA: Uncle, sounds like ya all set up right. Good luck!

 

[Burnie]

Current track has it going a little further north, hope for ME it stays that way, but it changes with every update. Will see what it is doing tomorrow.

Still going to get a lot of wind, just hoping for not a direct hit.

 

[Rossum]

Yeah, this is not good. Coming ashore as a Cat 4, then running right up I95 and still a Cat 2 when it gets to St. Augustine!

 

[Bea-FL]

Suitcase packed w/1 weeks clothing & extra sandles
Medicates for a month
Important papers and some "extra" money
vape Gear - 2 mods, 1 Pod, 6 10-30 ml bottles of e-liquid, and of course chargers/car charger.
3 Power Banks - in varying maH sizes / 1 with AC outlet (all can recharged with car battery)
1 HDTV - 7" portibale & runs on a battery/Car charger
1 Old XOOM Tablet - still works to connect to internet - just limited which websites I can pull up.
Assorted Adapters
Case of Water 48 Bottles
1 case - 12 packs of D4 Batteries (for all the Fans & Lanterns)

Topped off gas yesturday, had all "fluids" & tires checked too . . .

SO - No Matter Where Dorian Finally Decides To Go - I'm Ready . . . Everything packed in car (Of course - except electronics/Important papers) . . .

Now - The Wait - to leave to possibly go to my best friends home (which is hurricane "ready" ) in WPB - if necessary . . . Or - Maybe even go to @Bea-FL . . . . . . Won't know exactly, until Sun/Mon weather report, when I will hit the road . . .

THANKFULLY - I have Netflix . . .


SO - How is everyone else doing? Are You ready yet ?

you're welcome to come over but as of now we don't even know if we'll be here. The NHC shows Dorian as a cat 1 for here but Wundergroung shows it as a 2. As long as it doesn't become a 3 we'll be here.

 

[rosesense]

Anyone needing to come north is welcome to come here. I have lots of room and think I will be fine here. Might lose power so could be a tad hot and I don't have a generator. I am 4 hours north of Orlando.

 

[Bea-FL]

Anyone needing to come north is welcome to come here. I have lots of room and think I will be fine here. Might lose power so could be a tad hot and I don't have a generator. I am 4 hours north of Orlando.

If we end up with anything above a 2 we might try to take you up on it. You must only be about 1.5 hours north of us. Around Valdosta?

Thank you for your kind offer.

 

[Bea-FL]

@Rossum I must admit that I'm getting a bit worried now. I can handle a 1 and maybe a 2 but I saw your map and Wunderground shows it similar. Not good. I like NHC's better…still shows it as a 2. Here's hoping.

At point do you all evacuate? I have 3 cats. I suppose we should try to reserve a motel room (where they allow pets) just in case.

 

[Uncle]

you're welcome to come over but as of now we don't even know if we'll be here. The NHC shows Dorian as a cat 1 for here but Wundergroung shows it as a 2. As long as it doesn't become a 3 we'll be here.

Thank you - You Very Sweet Lady . . .

I was only trying to tease you, especially since if i was coming up to the area - it would defiantly be to see "You" to visit - not because I NEEDED to escape a Hurricane . . . Don't want to jink it, but with the 11 PM report - things are starting to look different . . .


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[Rossum]

At point do you all evacuate?

I think this depends much on location, potential for flooding, and type of construction. My place in FL is 150' from the ocean, less than 10' above sea level, and stucco over frame construction. My plan for when the hurricane comes has always been: Be somewhere else when it gets there. We executed that plan for Matthew, having bailed out 3 days before he got there. We were already somewhere else when Irma became a threat, as we are again this time. For both Matthew and Irma, everything in Flagler County east of the Intracoastal was a mandatory evacuation zone anyway, and if the current forecast holds, I expect it to be one again come Sunday or Monday. Now they don't actually force people out, but if you stay, you won't get rescued during the storm.

Not knowing exactly where you are, what the hazards there are, or how well your house is built, it's real difficult to say.

The 11pm update has the track shifting east more:

That's a more Matthew-like scenario than an Irma-like one.

 

[Uncle]

At point do you all evacuate? I have 3 cats. I suppose we should try to reserve a motel room (where they allow pets) just in case.

Well - I do not have any pets, so can't help ya' there.

But it is like what @Rossum said ^ ^ ^ ^

"I think this depends much on location, potential for flooding, and type of construction. "​

More importantly, it is all up to how comfortable and safe you feel where you are or where you plan to go . . .

So - BEEN THERE DONE THAT . . .

If it helps at all - IMHO . . . Make sure "You" have options and take whatever precautions Ya' NEED to make sure you and yours are safe ! ! ! ! Just Sayin' . . .

Today - I do much different then I have in the past for a number of personal reasons, all based on "My" NEEDS.

AND - To be honest, I never use to evacuate (except once to a shelter w/ my mother & brother), even living in an evacuation zone (Intercoastal). Felt pretty secure in the few different building I lived in here in FL. All of them were/are brick & motor. Also, I always live in a second floor apartment too, even do now. AND - When I originally I moved down here, I always had my mother to be with and make sure everything was alright for her (until she died over a decade ago).

Until - Then, Thankfully - when my best friends move to WPB (approximately 5 years ago), it was just a natural thing for me - having no one else to worry about an living alone - to go stay with them during a Hurricane (I would even go up a day or 2 ahead of time). Especially since most of the time they still had electricity, even when major storms went by, I NEED Electricity/AC (COPD - can't wait to be approved for an Inogen).

Well that is until "Irma" came by last year, lost electricity for 4 - 5 days (however, half of the housing complex still had electricity). Which was still better then where I live - no electricity for almost 11 days (and much better then Wilma - 2 1/2 weeks later), besides the fact the area was Flooded out.

This time though, I am waiting, until we know better where "Dorian" is headed. It only takes me about an hour to get to their home and I really do not want to burden/bother them unless I REALLY HAVE TOO. Hey - Even though we know each other for over 40 + years and have been through a lot together - I want to stay Friends with them both . . . If Ya' know what I mean . . .

As I said before, don't know if any of this helps or is informative . . . IMHO - Just make the decission that meets "Your" & Yours NEEDS to make sure everyone is comfortable & especially safe . . . Just Sayin' . . .



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[rosesense]

If we end up with anything above a 2 we might try to take you up on it. You must only be about 1.5 hours north of us. Around Valdosta?

Thank you for your kind offer.

Bea, I am about an hour from Valdosta, 2 1/2 hours from you. Don't worry, come on up anyway, if you want. At the very least, I am closer to getting north, if needed. I have 3 unused bedrooms and 2 noisy dogs. Vape stuff everywhere, lol. If you can handle that, c'mon up. Pets are fine.

If the weather isn't too bad, you can swim and just relax. Finally got the new pool in. Bring flashlights, I only have a couple. If we get bad wind, which I expect, likely will lose power. I have a gas grill so we can cook or make coffee. Important things, right?

 

[Burnie]

Well for ME, it is looking a little better.

I'm still not ruling out a hit, just like in 2004, hurricane Jeanne was "Supposed" to turn north before it hit the coast, but it didn't, and we got a direct hit, so I will still be prepared.

 

[Bea-FL]

Thanks everyone. Good info Ross and Uncle. We decided to stay put. Rose thanks for the invite. You're very kind.

Our area isn't even close to flooding…one of the reasons we chose to live here. We recently had our roof replaced and it's rated at withstanding 130 mph winds…let's hope it never has to prove it. We live SW of Jax, about 35 miles inland. For a cat 2 we would cover the windows. We have a generator that can handle everything but the A/C. No one in my neighborhood is evacuating and most of them have lived here for ever. We are well stocked - food, gas, vape, drugs, even water (although our genie will run the pump.

I never thought we'd have to worry about all this. One of the reasons we chose the Jax area was because the likelyhood of hurricanes was very low.

Stay safe everyone.

 

[Bea-FL]

An interesting bit of info. Home insurance.com has ranked Florida’s cities based on their evaluation of NOAA-identified storms from 1965 to October 2014, doling out scores based on the number of storm events, number of storm-related deaths, property damage and storm-related injuries.

The top 10 safest cities in Florida during a hurricane, according to the insurance study, are:

1. Leesburg
2. Orlando
3. Sanford
4. Kissimmee
5. Palatka
6. Lake City
7. Naples
8. Ocala
9. Gainesville
10. Fernandina Beach

The entire ranking is below.

 

[Uncle]

@rosesense . . .

How very nice of "You" to offer your home to our friend Bea, especially with such open arms . . .

@Bea-FL . . .

AND - What a sigh of relief to know "Dorian" has changed direction for now and you finally made a decission and will hopefully stay & be safe - not driving all over the state to find a place for you & your cats . . .

.​

.

 

[MacTechVpr]

So my friend asks me, "Most of them show a northward turn, as you've been saying. What i wanna know is, what’s that one wild crazy loop de loop?

And I said, "Canadian!"

Good luck.

 

[Uncle]

what’s that one wild crazy loop de loop?

Like that would ever happen . . .

"Charlie"


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​

 

[MacTechVpr]

At 8:00 A.M. Dorian was a min pressure 944mb storm (Weather Underground), barely a CAT3 at ~115mph max sustained per various reports. At that strength based on the exceptional deep water buoy report I could find of 91deg, it might have well attained the preceding.

For Dorain to get legs, strengthen and flatten out its Westward approach it needs to continue to see that kind of consistent temp, in my opinion. Most coastal sea water temps we've been seeing hover at between 82-85deg coastal. Present air temp at Hollywood FL is 84deg, hum 8%, press 29.89 inHG (1.012mb). You need to break 960 mb for a CAT3.

Dvorak Current Intensity Chart

I get offended when I see the prolific gratuitous use of CAT 4-5 by the media without very much of an explanation for such confident prediction, if at all. Furthermore the wonton omission or obfuscation by NOAA and NSW in recent years of plainly readable maps, satellite, merges WITH scientific data overlays which only lends to *our* uncertainty, as if we can't be trusted with the data. If such superfluous concern as we're seeing *for our welfare* IS the price for environmentalism, you can keep it.

Accordingly I'm optimistic about the strength of this storm and landfall but still hope all of you will be prepared in place or have a safe place to be. We all have our limits. Better to be mindful of them.

Best of luck to you all.

p.s. As I wrote this, I now see the latest NOAA track projection here…

Interactive Forecast Graphics and Coastal Watches/Warnings
Hurricane Dorian Advisory #029
11:00 am EDT Sat Aug 31, 2019

 

[Iffy]

Well, we're out of da probability bubble (west Bradenton). Looks like a lil' mo' soakin' fer moi, though.

You SE coasters, be prepped and/or gone! Best o' luck to y'all.

 

[Bea-FL]

Getting better!!!