Dorian: here we go again!

[MacTechVpr]

Nope - 11 Pm report the winds got up to 200 mph, but back to 180 mph right now . . .

@Bea-FL . . .

All I can say right now is - Stayin' here, since WPB is supposed to get hit pretty hard . . . AND - Although there maybe power lost around here when Dorian comes by tomorrow evening/night, I really hope the winds don't take the electricity out for too long, especially not having any AC (breathing problems) - NOT NICE . . . Just Sayn' . . .


BTW: How is everyone else doing?

Doin good. Optimistic this thing is not likely to harm us unless it makes a straight break for the coast. At the moment (Midnight) The Big D seems stalled, jogging and weakening noticeably (<100mph). I'd stay put unless alarm bells go off. Stopped watching other realtime data as I've been playin off and on with Windy. Still uncertain as to the update frequency for wind speeds, i.e. relatively live or modeled and which of the forecast modes is best. Refer mostly to whichever is producing the highest numbers at surface. Windy seemed to be right on the mark for localization as of the 11PM advisory.

They're still reporting 914mb and frankly that would flatten a bunker with the time D's been onshore. Just don't expect we'll see Freeport turned to sand by morning. So I don't know what to make of NOAA and NWS. Windy's models are based on data from them. Comfounded by the contradictions.

Stay well, stay safe and

Good luck.

 

[Bea-FL]

I gave up watching network weather news…or any other network news…a long time ago. They're nothing but sensationalistic. They don't know how to report JUST the news anymore.

Mac did you see my question above about the Windy wind speeds? What do you make of it?

 

[MacTechVpr]

I gave up watching network weather news…or any other network news…a long time ago. They're nothing but sensationalistic. They don't know how to report JUST the news anymore.

Mac did you see my question above about the Windy wind speeds? What do you make of it?

Very disappointed. Media is still reporting CAT 5. Certainly saw CAT2/3 activity on video that's gotten on the net (if authentic). Gratefully for peeps there not CAT 4/5. Everything would be mostly leveled. Way info is being interpreted based on lowest press at storm center and generalized is not indicative. Andrew saw an incredible distribution of tornado activity throughout its hurricane force wind field. Sustained winds out from center of storm is more indicative. So Windy helps there if observed/forcast is accurate.

While it's up, current conditions en vivo…

Hopefully this moves soon for these poor folks.

Good luck.

p.s. Sorry, lot of trolls on the live chat stream (adults only).

 

[Rossum]

Right now, it's looking like maximum winds of ~50 mph at my place at around noon on Wednesday. Those winds should be out of the north, meaning they wont be pushing water onto the shore. Trouble is, high tide on Wednesday is around 1:00 pm. Why is it that the worst conditions with these storms are always at high tide?

Here's hoping the new dunes that were put in a early last year hold and don't get topped.

Current cam picture:

 

[MacTechVpr]

Right now, it's looking like maximum winds of ~50 mph at my place at around noon on Wednesday. Those winds should be out of the north, meaning they wont be pushing water onto the shore. Trouble is, high tide on Wednesday is around 1:00 pm. Why is it that the worst conditions with these storms are always at high tide?

Here's hoping the new dunes that were put in a early last year hold and don't get topped.

Current cam picture:

Full moon conditions tho so mebe lower than otherwise? Stem the tide some, hopefully. Well for now, I see this thing is gonna drag long the coast for some time.

Good luck.

 

[Uncle]

Dorian has even come that close - nor have i lost electricity yet, but I've had cabin fever for the past few days . . . Been awake since 7 AM - cant watch any more TV - gotta get out for a few hours before Dorian comes through . . .

 

[MacTechVpr]

We're done here. Last of morning drizzle is ova and the sun's finally breakin' out. Wishin' this baby off-shore for ya.

Good luck all.

 

[Uncle]

We're done here. Last of morning drizzle is ova and the sun's finally breakin' out. Wishin' this baby off-shore for ya.

Good luck all.

Same here . . . Hopefully more people will check in later to let everyone know how they are doing . . .



.

 

[Rossum]

A guy about 1/4 mile to the west of our place has done this to his house:

I'm trying to figure out what good that's gonna do him?

 

[MacTechVpr]

A guy about 1/4 mile to the west of our place has done this to his house:

I'm trying to figure out what good that's gonna do him?

I dunno…keep it from floating away?

Good luck.

 

[classwife]

...kept him busy for a while ?

 

[Rossum]

As I sorta expected, Flagler county has ordered mandatory evacuations for everything east of the ICW, as well as some low-lying areas to the west of it.

Things are starting to look a bit stormy already:

 

[Bea-FL]

Mac IMO NHC is useless…they are a government agency after all. I don't trust anything government to be truthful.

I watched some videos coming out of the Bahamas last night and while there was a lot of destruction, everything was not flattened…most structures standing to some extent. This would not be possible in a cat 5 hurricane, especially when it has lasted so many hours at that intensity. I think it's really a shame that news reporting these days is so much about making things appear worse than they are. As if they aren't bad enough.

I'm going with Windy.

 

[puffon]

Windy.com uses NHC info for the projected path.
It will take awhile for the Bahamas to rebuild.

Hurricane Michael hit Mexico Beach FL as a cat 5 also.
Surprisingly many buildings were left standing and not leveled:

 

[MacTechVpr]

Windy.com uses NHC info for the projected path.
It will take awhile for the Bahamas to rebuild.

Hurricane Michael hit Mexico Beach FL as a cat 5 also.
Surprisingly many buildings were left standing and not leveled:

Bad storm surge this one. Time was not a friend either. Awful. You don't want to be near the eyewall of any powerful storm, if you can help it. Prayers for these folks.

Good luck.

 

[MacTechVpr]

Mac IMO NHC is useless…they are a government agency after all. I don't trust anything government to be truthful.

I watched some videos coming out of the Bahamas last night and while there was a lot of destruction, everything was not flattened…most structures standing to some extent. This would not be possible in a cat 5 hurricane, especially when it has lasted so many hours at that intensity. I think it's really a shame that news reporting these days is so much about making things appear worse than they are. As if they aren't bad enough.

I'm going with Windy.

I'd rather have it than be without given how diff it's become to find clear presentations among NOAH and NWS dispersed offerings. They were in the past far more useful and accessible for folks with a little understanding. I miss the crystal clear storm photo-graphics, renderings and selectable data overlays of the past now absent from the same interfaces. All neat and in expected places. But the appearance of seamless real-time observation Windy offers is appealing. Learning curve is easier too but it's easy to misuse, or to be misused. Too easy, yet I'd rather be glued to it than a flashing tube of screeching heads proselytizing the end of the world and faking reporters on the ground in their wet suits. A cautionary tale here. I liked the old normal. Sometimes more is a lot less.

Good luck.

 

[Rossum]

Windy.com uses NHC info for the projected path.

I don't think so. Again, a few days ago, it was leading the NHC's eastward migration of the projected path by about half a day.

 

[Rossum]

I suppose Flagler County wants to be seen doing something ahead of the storm again. A couple of hours ago, they dumped a big pile of sand at beach end of our road. I don't think this is going to do any good at all.

Two years ago, just ahead of Irma, these clowns were scraping sand off the beach to plug some holes in the dunes:

 

[MacTechVpr]

I think it's gotta be the same and common sources, unless Windy's got it's own eyes in the sky.

The Global Forecast System (GFS) - Global Spectral Model (GSM)

Good luck.

 

[MacTechVpr]

I'd laugh my ... off it weren't so screaming awful…but I just got an alert on the iPhone from FOX stating Dorian, "is 'stationary' over the Bahamas. The storm has currently maximum sustained winds of 145(mph)…". Center press still being rep as 922 (ECM, 953).

I'm at the same distance from center as GBI, 11mph. New dog, old tricks.

Good luck.