FDA Zeller Actually Lets the Truth Slip Out - Let's Pay Attention

[AndriaD]

I really don't think any of these things will be "banned" outright -- you really think the fed gov't is going to pass up ANY chance to get more money out of us? I don't. I think they'll tax them on a sliding scale -- the more effective they are, the more tax will be applied. If you want a decent setup, you pay thru the nose; if you can be happy with cigalikes, you'll get those from BT, and pay thru the nose, but in a slightly different way, and perhaps just slightly less.

Despite all the ANTZ running around screaming that the sky is falling, I doubt the gov't sees it that way; all they ever see, about anything, is dollar signs. To them, that's all that taxpayers/consumers/citizens really are, just organic money machines. They don't give a rat's patootie about our health, except that live people pay more taxes than dead ones -- that is the entire extent of their concern for our well-being, we can't pay taxes if we're dead. That's why I doubt they'll ban them; anything that will help us stay alive longer, to pay them more money, they're ALL FOR that.

And despite the general obtuseness of the gov't and all those in it, I'm pretty sure they remember the fiasco that ensued from prohibition, and I think that's partly why they're starting to relax about... you know, that other stuff -- it takes a little thunder from criminals, as repealing prohibition stole a lot of thunder from organized crime. I know the gov't is stupid, but they understand that banning something just creates a black market, into which steps organized crime.

Andria

 

[sky4it]

Hope that was 10 chars.

Repost of Taylons great message.

 

[sky4it]

Sure, but "All" can be reasonably qualified as "a statistically relevant quantity", and his statement presupposes that ecgis are safer.

It certainly does. ie(presuppose that ecigs are safer)

SWITCHING (which is in Zellers comment also) implies continuous use (nicotine patches,gum, and Chantix are cessation products. Say one Switches from Marlboro to Camel, They didn't quit, they still are using.) And the battle axe who thinks he's Hercules - Zeller is stuck with it. Not a lot of wiggle room there either, what is he going to do admit that BP products don't work, that they are simply expensive tobacco alternatives? Hardly. Also, Zellers remark is about those who can't or won't quit smoking. And ecigs are replacement therapy. Zeller is walking around with one pant leg missing, take advantage of it. yeah, and I would say that "all" is a reasonably sufficient quantity to qualify the remark. He couldnt have possibly buried himself any further unless he had used the word infinity-with bad breathe on his lips.

And since it has become a political issue, no need to wrestle with Jeff's professional comment.

We also know the facts,that advanced ecig devices coupled with people choosing there own flavorings are more likely to get "some" people to switch, then there boring cigalike counterparts. (But certainly not "all" people.) With apologies to the words "some" and "all." Zeller sounds like he wants to run a commercial for Njoy, whose Executive Andrew Beaver said, " Our mission is to make cigarettes obsolete." Also from this article you can pencil exactly what Jeff said about Zellers remarks because of what is in this article. Combustion cigarette is terminology in the article for regular cigarettes. Hence, Non-combustition, must be terminology for ecigarettes. (Njoy don't sell gum.) Here is the link: NJOY: The E-Cigarette That Aims To Snuff Out Smoking - Forbes

Also, the context of his remark is insignificant, even if he vents about other people not quitting because of ecigs. Why? Because of the context of his own script. He said it in reference to those who won't or cannot quit. Whats he going to say, try some Chantix, i know it wont help you anyway cause you cannot quit? True, he can wrangle on about ecigs making quitting with BP products unfashionable, but it is a lopsided argument. Especially in America. Where your unforgiven if you don't choose the product that suits what you want. Thats like saying the guy who went out to buy dinner but instead showed up with a stolen car is wise. If people want to quit smoking, Zeller has NO right to interfere in that. That by law. To quit or not to quit is a personal choice. His only other "out" is the dangers of what second hand vape? Since doubtless, Njoy and Blu will be in, what is the FDA's only other argument? That Njoy and Blu second hand vape is healthier for the public then Kanger, Innokin, Smoketech etc? Preposterous. Well, my Persion cat in my avatar is "seeming" to appreciate, so I won't digress. Besides all this, when have to explain what he said, long winded arguments like that rarely get heard real well.

In the end, the pivotal players will be lawyers, politicians, corporate interests, media professionals, hopefully not spindoctors. Let's hope vapors will be a pivotal player too, not just cigalike corporate interests. The comment by Zeller leaves him with less road to travel on, but only if he is forced to amend what he is doing on account of what he said. One of the pivotal problems IMO regarding the pivotal players is education. It really is a steep learning curve for them to understand clearomizers, tanks and so forth. While it may seem easy for those of us who "get it", to them it is just a weird looking contraption that is getting brow beat by spindoctors. And Jeff is correct, that pointing to them as a solution as a opposed to stinkies, provides a valid approach. And it is not just a valid approach, but it is a hurdle that must be won. Here is the important point if I might have one: The people that are going to be making decisions about what we can vape, have almost no knowlegable facts about what vaping really is. And if this point is not addressed, it will put "our cause" in a tailspin. It has a easy solution. Vape is vape. An atomizer is an atomizer, wether in a cigalike or not. If that point can be addressed, not as a bargaining chip, heck yah this angle is not weak.

But perhaps we all, (no I am not trying to excercise some sort of modest control), could benefit by one important fact. We are not even pundits, who have an audience. So too if we can't agree on something that is factual and significant, what sort of impact can we have?

Stosh has been around for a long time here at ECF. I listen too him, and I learn from him because he is knowledgeable. Stosh also gives credence to commentary from those of us who have been at ECF for a shorter while, but ONLY IF THEY ARE VALID. Thank you Stosh.

It was JC who one time said, "A house divided amongst itself cannot stand."

Of course Taylon has already pointed this out in a photo out to us here at ECF on another thread, and Taylon's point is worth while remembering. So I reposted Taylon great response of the photos of lions above. Thanks Taylon, I get the point.

 

[Stosh]

After sky4it's praise I'm almost embarrassed to post....

But before we put too much faith or hope in Zeller's words, peruse this link...Top ten recent politicians to excuse stupid comments with "I misspoke", across parties and functions.....

 

[Traver]

I think you guys are forgetting the other elephant in the room. I call it China.

What will the Chinese companies like Hanseng or Kanger do?. Aren't some of these companies big enough to apply to the FDA. I think there may be more products and competition than everybody is expecting.

 

[zoiDman]

I think you guys are forgetting the other elephant in the room. I call it China.

What will the Chinese companies like Hanseng or Kanger do?. Aren't some of these companies big enough to apply to the FDA. I think there may be more products and competition than everybody is expecting.

That's kinda the $64,000 Question.

Because More Applications Doesn't Necessarily mean More Products.

 

[AndriaD]

It certainly does. ie(presuppose that ecigs are safer)

SWITCHING (which is in Zellers comment also) implies continuous use (nicotine patches,gum, and Chantix are cessation products. Say one Switches from Marlboro to Camel, They didn't quit, they still are using.) And the battle axe who thinks he's Hercules - Zeller is stuck with it. Not a lot of wiggle room there either, what is he going to do admit that BP products don't work, that they are simply expensive tobacco alternatives? Hardly. Also, Zellers remark is about those who can't or won't quit smoking. And ecigs are replacement therapy. Zeller is walking around with one pant leg missing, take advantage of it. yeah, and I would say that "all" is a reasonably sufficient quantity to qualify the remark. He couldnt have possibly buried himself any further unless he had used the word infinity-with bad breathe on his lips.

And since it has become a political issue, no need to wrestle with Jeff's professional comment.

We also know the facts,that advanced ecig devices coupled with people choosing there own flavorings are more likely to get "some" people to switch, then there boring cigalike counterparts. (But certainly not "all" people.) With apologies to the words "some" and "all." Zeller sounds like he wants to run a commercial for Njoy, whose Executive Andrew Beaver said, " Our mission is to make cigarettes obsolete." Also from this article you can pencil exactly what Jeff said about Zellers remarks because of what is in this article. Combustion cigarette is terminology in the article for regular cigarettes. Hence, Non-combustition, must be terminology for ecigarettes. (Njoy don't sell gum.) Here is the link: NJOY: The E-Cigarette That Aims To Snuff Out Smoking - Forbes

Also, the context of his remark is insignificant, even if he vents about other people not quitting because of ecigs. Why? Because of the context of his own script. He said it in reference to those who won't or cannot quit. Whats he going to say, try some Chantix, i know it wont help you anyway cause you cannot quit? True, he can wrangle on about ecigs making quitting with BP products unfashionable, but it is a lopsided argument. Especially in America. Where your unforgiven if you don't choose the product that suits what you want. Thats like saying the guy who went out to buy dinner but instead showed up with a stolen car is wise. If people want to quit smoking, Zeller has NO right to interfere in that. That by law. To quit or not to quit is a personal choice. His only other "out" is the dangers of what second hand vape? Since doubtless, Njoy and Blu will be in, what is the FDA's only other argument? That Njoy and Blu second hand vape is healthier for the public then Kanger, Innokin, Smoketech etc? Preposterous. Well, my Persion cat in my avatar is "seeming" to appreciate, so I won't digress. Besides all this, when have to explain what he said, long winded arguments like that rarely get heard real well.

In the end, the pivotal players will be lawyers, politicians, corporate interests, media professionals, hopefully not spindoctors. Let's hope vapors will be a pivotal player too, not just cigalike corporate interests. The comment by Zeller leaves him with less road to travel on, but only if he is forced to amend what he is doing on account of what he said. One of the pivotal problems IMO regarding the pivotal players is education. It really is a steep learning curve for them to understand clearomizers, tanks and so forth. While it may seem easy for those of us who "get it", to them it is just a weird looking contraption that is getting brow beat by spindoctors. And Jeff is correct, that pointing to them as a solution as a opposed to stinkies, provides a valid approach. And it is not just a valid approach, but it is a hurdle that must be won. Here is the important point if I might have one: The people that are going to be making decisions about what we can vape, have almost no knowlegable facts about what vaping really is. And if this point is not addressed, it will put "our cause" in a tailspin. It has a easy solution. Vape is vape. An atomizer is an atomizer, wether in a cigalike or not. If that point can be addressed, not as a bargaining chip, heck yah this angle is not weak.

But perhaps we all, (no I am not trying to excercise some sort of modest control), could benefit by one important fact. We are not even pundits, who have an audience. So too if we can't agree on something that is factual and significant, what sort of impact can we have?

Stosh has been around for a long time here at ECF. I listen too him, and I learn from him because he is knowledgeable. Stosh also gives credence to commentary from those of us who have been at ECF for a shorter while, but ONLY IF THEY ARE VALID. Thank you Stosh.

It was JC who one time said, "A house divided amongst itself cannot stand."

Of course Taylon has already pointed this out in a photo out to us here at ECF on another thread, and Taylon's point is worth while remembering. So I reposted Taylon great response of the photos of lions above. Thanks Taylon, I get the point.

An excellent post, I really hate to quibble, but I believe the "house divided" quote was actually Abraham Lincoln.

Andria

 

[AndriaD]

I think you guys are forgetting the other elephant in the room. I call it China.

What will the Chinese companies like Hanseng or Kanger do?. Aren't some of these companies big enough to apply to the FDA. I think there may be more products and competition than everybody is expecting.

Yeah, I keep having fantasies about, what if China agreed to forgive some of the astronomical US debt, in exchange for leaving e-cigs alone...

Andria

 

[aikanae1]

This is what came to mind;

 

[zoiDman]

Yeah, I keep having fantasies about, what if China agreed to forgive some of the astronomical US debt, in exchange for leaving e-cigs alone...

Andria

Possible.

But counter to what Many Kids were taught at Young Age, sometimes the Stick works Better than the Carrot.

China is in a Unique Situation. In that the Make 90%+ of the Hardware. They are the Largest Tobacco Grower in the World. And they Hold over 1.2 Trillion Dollars (that's Trillion with a "T") of our Debt.

When you Hold that Many Court Cards in your Hand, you Don't need to do as Much Asking. And can do more Telling.

 

[Traver]

One more thing, some American juice makers may be big enough to meet FDA regulations. There will also be a lot of American companies for sale at pennies for the dollar. So I would expect a lot of consolidation and larger companies being formed. Even the Chinese may pick some of these companies up. There is also the fact American enterprise is really good at getting around regulations when the market is there. I can see many ways of doing that. It is really hard to say what will happen till we see the final regulations.

 

[Roger_Lafayette]

No registration ==> no product on the market, six months or so after the proposed rule becomes final. Period.

A rejected application (or no application) ==> no product on the market, two years after the proposed rule becomes final. Period.

(Both of the above statements presume that the final rule is similar to what's being proposed, of course.)

We can talk all day long in general terms about what "the gov't" will "do," or what the "interests" might be of "the gov't." Just like Zeller can make all the broad-brush comments that he likes (including the one that started this thread).

None of that has any bearing on a law that has some very specific requirements for the approval of tobacco products, as well as "components or parts" of tobacco products.

So when we get down to the nitty-gritty, some company is going to have to put up approximately $1M for every e-liquid (down to the specific compositoin - no "blanket approvals" for a particular flavor), and $1M for every piece of equipment.

It's a big gamble, and it requires some deep pockets. And e-liquid isn't much good without equipment. Or vice-versa. In fact, any equipment maufacturer is going to have to gamble that there are enough approved e-liquids to support the sales of whatever equipment gets approved. And an e-liquid manufacturer is going to have to gamble that there are enough different types of equipment to support a customer base for their juices.

This is yet another reason why cigAlikes have an inherent advantage, along with the hugely deep pockets of the BT and BV (big vapor) manufacturers.

And it's no longer just CASAA that's saying that, try this Motley Fool article: http://www.e-cigarette-forum.com/fo...just-hand-e-cigarette-market-big-tobacco.html

Or this piece in CSPNet by Melissa Vonder Haar (who really knows what she's talking about IMO - one of the best reporters in the tobacco area): http://www.cspnet.com/category-mana...les/editorial-deeming-regs-look-promising-now

 

[Bobbilly]

Then get the law changed

 

[AndriaD]

Possible.

But counter to what Many Kids were taught at Young Age, sometimes the Stick works Better than the Carrot.

China is in a Unique Situation. In that the Make 90%+ of the Hardware. They are the Largest Tobacco Grower in the World. And they Hold over 1.2 Trillion Dollars (that's Trillion with a "T") of our Debt.

When you Hold that Many Court Cards in your Hand, you Don't need to do as Much Asking. And can do more Telling.

I like the sound of that! I mean really, do any of us that have successfully used e-cigs to quit or cut down drastically on smoking care one iota that it was a chinese guy who invented this "electronic" version of e-cigs? Yeah there was a basic electric version invented by an american, a very good idea that didn't go far enough because the technology didn't yet exist, and so were essentially inadequate to the purpose. So later when the tech *did* exist, a chinese guy figured it out? Bully for him! I hope he's rich as Croesus! He deserves it, for giving this to the world!

If China would offer *any* incentive, such as forgiveness for even the smallest part of that staggering debt, somebody in Washington could probably talk the rest of the money-hungry politicos into it. Several problems solved in one swell foop.

Andria

 

[zoiDman]

I like the sound of that! I mean really, do any of us that have successfully used e-cigs to quit or cut down drastically on smoking care one iota that it was a chinese guy who invented this "electronic" version of e-cigs? Yeah there was a basic electric version invented by an american, a very good idea that didn't go far enough because the technology didn't yet exist, and so were essentially inadequate to the purpose. So later when the tech *did* exist, a chinese guy figured it out? Bully for him! I hope he's rich as Croesus! He deserves it, for giving this to the world!

If China would offer *any* incentive, such as forgiveness for even the smallest part of that staggering debt, somebody in Washington could probably talk the rest of the money-hungry politicos into it. Several problems solved in one swell foop.

Andria

I know it Sounds Good. And I know where you would like it to go. But Isn't China going to be OK in a Regulated US Market anyway.

Say that things go the Way that Many Feel they Will. That only BT and someone like NJoy can sell FDA Approved e-Cigarettes. Who's gonna make them? Isn't China going to.

And if you make a Product, would you Rather make it for more of a Price-Protected Market with Lots of Competition? Or would you rather make it in a Regulated Market with Only a Handful of Retailers?

 

[Roger_Lafayette]

Then get the law changed

Well, we can't get the tobacco act changed. That requires legislation, which is going to be very difficult.

But we can do our best to throw as many roadblocks in front of the FDA as we can - in order to keep the proposed rule from being final in anything like its current form ... including bringing pressure on them via Congress and the media, and building the kind of case that might be used in the event of litigation.

It's not very helpful to pin our hopes on a generalized remark by Zeller (especially without understanding what he really meant by it), or to misapprehend the overwhelmingly likely consequences of having the proposed rule become final.

 

[Stubby]

No registration ==> no product on the market, six months or so after the proposed rule becomes final. Period.

A rejected application (or no application) ==> no product on the market, two years after the proposed rule becomes final. Period.

(Both of the above statements presume that the final rule is similar to what's being proposed, of course.)

We can talk all day long in general terms about what "the gov't" will "do," or what the "interests" might be of "the gov't."

None of that has any bearing on a law that has some very specific requirements for the approval of tobacco products, as well as "components or parts" of tobacco products.

So when we get down to the nitty-gritty, some company is going to have to put up approximately $1M for every e-liquid (down to the specific compositoin - no "blanket approvals" for a particular flavor), and $1M for every piece of equipment.

It's a big gamble, and it requires some deep pockets. And e-liquid isn't much good without equipment. Or vice-versa.

So it is 60 or so days left for the comment period (assuming no extension), another 6 months (and perhaps as much as a few years but......who knows) and then another 6 months to register.

Assuming the final ruling is similar to the present, in a few months over a year (worst case scenario) it is possible the vast majority of liquid (and hardware) will be off the market as I have to assume very few will actually bother to register.

If I am wrong in this Roger let me know.

No need to worry......... the black market will save us all.......

 

[Bobbilly]

Well, we can't get the tobacco act changed. That requires legislation, which is going to be very difficult.

But we can do our best to throw as many roadblocks in front of the FDA as we can - in order to keep the proposed rule from being final in anything like its current form ... including bringing pressure on them via Congress and the media, and building the kind of case that might be used in the event of litigation.

It's not very helpful to pin our hopes on a generalized remark by Zeller (especially without understanding what he really meant by it), or to misapprehend the overwhelmingly likely consequences of having the proposed rule become final.

I guess if it isn't worth the effort to even suggest amending or hanging the act which would IMHO provide a net benefit. Good thing that wasn't the attitude with prohibition.
You don't fight them on their ground you make them fight on yours.

As for zellers comment. I agree what he said was correct however I don't believe he thinks vaporizers will do that.

 

[Gato del Jugo]

And Big Pharma wishes that electronic cigarettes were wiped off the face of the planet.

But they can live with Big Tobacco being allowed to sell electronic cigarettes that don't work.

Here's the thing...


BT is way behind the curve..

Of the Big 3, only Lorillard has anything serious going on, with $230 million in blu revenue in 2013 -- and keep in mind that last summer, blu rolled out a much cheaper kit at $35 to replace their $60-70 models.. Unit volume might increase, but at the expense of revenue, which has already stalled.. And blu's operational profits are razor thin (something like 2-3% margin), with tons more about to be thrown at marketing, as competition is still heating up..

They spent like $135 million on blu a couple years ago when it was a much smaller company.. Altria also recently spent like $110 million on Green Smoke.. And Reynolds American is launching their cigalike soon...

The Big 3 have spent a lot of time & money -- and what do they have to show for it? None of them even have an eGo type, let alone a real PV..

And yet, the non-cigalike side of things is about half the market (if not more these days).. It's also where all the current & future growth & profit are.. The cigalike market will shrink, due to smokers/new consumers jumping straight to an eGo (or better)...

BT is in a catch-22.. Ignore that half of the market, and their combustible & cigalike markets will eventually crumble.. Or dive into that market, have their combustible & cigalike markets eventually crumble, but at least might be able to survive as a company that much longer -- even though they'll have to spend more money trying to buy up these smaller vape companies, which they're trying to force via the FDA..

If you're Altria, you don't want to destroy your very profitable combustible market by getting some non-cigalikes under your umbrella.. Keep the combustibles going for as long as possible, and offer some lousy cigalikes for those who do want to give them a whirl [hands-free, cig (pack) shape & size, use 'em discreetly where you can't smoke, etc.]... But at the same time, the non-cigalikes are where it's at! Do you really want one of your competitors (Reynolds, Lorillard) gaining the upperhand & grabbing the ProVari first by acquiring ProVape? Because if you don't, they will... Each of the Big 3 already knows that..

(And don't think the Chinese companies like Innokin, Kanger, etc., will just fold-up & re-tool.. they're most certainly acquisition fodder in this game, too -- or at the very least, partner material..)


Try as they may, but BT isn't going to let BP steam-roll them on this, either as an industry or as an individual company..


Of course, there's also another catch-22 for BT in all this...

Many vapers have woken up & will not purchase anything from BT ever again.. Some who say that now might go back on their word, but I believe many of the rest will either quit vaping after a while, black-market it, and/or DIY (juice & PVs)..

So, for example, say Altria acquires ProVape.. nice jackpot for ProVape's owners... But that business will soon be decimated.. Sales will drop, say, 60%, due to current vapers turning their back on them.. Profit will plummet & turn into losses.. Relocate operations to China & lay off the US workers.. ProVari quality plummets & revenue falls even further.. Former ProVape-owners-turned-BT-slaves will get the boot.. Etc... A once-great company has been destroyed & is unrecognizable..

Meanwhile, Altria will have spent $X millions on the acquisition, and what will they have left of their prize? They'll have to spend millions more on marketing to stem the flow, all in hopes of gaining some new vape customers -- but will they be able to do enough of that in time?

In effect, they'd have killed off some of their competition, whether intentional or not -- but at what price to BT?


Of course, regardless of what happens & how it takes place, combustible tobacco will continue its decline (at a quicker or slower rate, who knows) -- making BP that much weaker, too...


Anybody else ever get the sense that whenever Big Business & Big Government get involved with something, they totally mess it up for the rest of us??

Make sure to have lots of popcorn on hand, people!

 

[Jman8]

Well, we can't get the tobacco act changed. That requires legislation, which is going to be very difficult.

But we can do our best to throw as many roadblocks in front of the FDA as we can - in order to keep the proposed rule from being final in anything like its current form ... including bringing pressure on them via Congress and the media, and building the kind of case that might be used in the event of litigation.

The "we can do our best" part relates to the "going to be very difficult" assertion.

Congress can amend the statute. Actually pretty easily. Getting Congress to do that may prove to be very difficult, but either way, we the people will get this changed; either before the final rule goes into effect, via congress, immediately after the rule is in effect via lawsuits, or a few to many years after the final rule is in effect via market scenarios that need not seek authorization from what will easily (and I mean very easily) viewed as corrupt and out of touch with current reality. The War on Other Stuff makes this, rather abundantly, clear.