FDA Zeller Actually Lets the Truth Slip Out - Let's Pay Attention

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AndriaD

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Amateurs...I had the optional 5 meg external HDD....:2cool:

I bet you paid some serious bucks for it, too! That's why I didn't have one for a long time, till I upgraded to a 386sx in '91, they just cost so much -- in '91, I paid $200 for a 80mb HD, and that was a real steal. :D

Andria
 

aikanae1

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It seems to me that one of the very best things we can possibly do to counter any or all of this doom, is keep enlisting new vapers all the time. Eventually there *will* come a point when smoking tobacco is just... obsolete, old-fashioned, just stupid in the eyes of whatever modern culture prevails at that time. When no one is buying tobacco, there will BE no "big tobacco."

Granted, this might take a while, maybe longer than some of us may have left, but typewriters were state of the art in 1900; by 1950 they were electric; by 1975 they were electronic mag-card spouting behemoths; by 2000, they were dinosaurs. When *better* means to do a thing become available, older, less-efficient means just die away.

Anybody still using a Walkman?

Andria

Fool 'em. Intentially market to the grey hair's. Teens can't vote anyway.
 

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That all Free Market Thinking.

And that's Not where were Headed.

;)

So if cigalikes are where it's going to be at due to the FDA, then why is NJOY even bothering to enter the eGo-type market at this point, which they recently announced? Haven't they read the proposed regs??


BT's Big 3 have at least 2-3 years, during which one of them will probably make a play for a non-cigalike company.. Who's going to make the 1st move, and for whom? BT is competing amongst themselves, keep in mind.. One goes for it, and the others will scramble & soon follow.. All it takes is one of them to pull that trigger & get a deal going...

Lorillard's CEO is already on recent record saying that their blu's are relatively weak & ineffective (read the 6-page transcript), and are trying to compete against eGo's by investing in cigalike technology & innovation.. They'll try to do it on their own in-house, but I don't believe they'll get there that way..

And once the hammer drops on official FDA regulations, at least some of these smaller vape companies will become more desperate, and more willing to get bought out if they feel they can't handle it on their own.. And one can argue that Lorillard is already planting the seeds via the recent SFATA conference, from the looks & sounds of it...


I really don't see this that far-fetched at all..

As for ProVape, who knows.. They may try to go it alone & it was only used as an example...


And yes, it is possible to quit via cigalikes, so BT is already most certainly cannibalizing their combustibles biz & aware of such.. It's not easy to quit that way, and there are easier ways, especially now, but it can be done..

I personally did it myself, and I'm sure there have been others... After a few months of full-time blu's & was done with smoking forever, I decided I liked vaping enough to continue doing it, so I explored further & climbed up that vape ladder... At one point, though, I was ready to put down the blu's & be done with vaping forever, as well...
 

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I listen to quite a few podcasts, but I believe it was on at least one of the VP Live's recent replays.. I recall Dimitris was involved in the discussion (he has his own VP Live show, but he also calls in during other people's shows, too)..

These things can run like 2 hours long, but I'd imagine it was earlier on in the show..

https://soundcloud.com/#vp-live

Vapers Place - Show Schedule and Replays

I might try finding it tomorrow.. If I do & am successful, I'll post the link & time here..


I believe it was subsequently discussed a little here on ECF, as well...
 

Fitzie

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So if cigalikes are where it's going to be at due to the FDA, then why is NJOY even bothering to enter the eGo-type market at this point, which they recently announced? Haven't they read the proposed regs??

I'll bite. Once the new FDA regs destroy the small e-cig manufacturers, vendors, juice companies, etc., and BT is the only game in town, they're gonna do what the premium cigar industry is doing and get e-cigs exempted from FDA regulation. By then, there may even be scientific evidence that e-cigs are safer than combustibles.

Help Exempt Premium Cigars From FDA Regulation!

HR 792 has 155 cosponsors; S 772 has 15 cosponsors. It looks like "big cigar" is well on it's way getting their product exempt from FDA regulation.

Talk about hypocrisy. I haven't read anything that says smoking cigars is safer than smoking cigarettes.
 
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Oliver

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That is correct, Roger.

The survey itself is carried out by YouGov, and if done in the US would be carried out by one of their affiliates (actually, wholly owned acquisitions). The cost in the UK is £125k, and Robert tells me it would be more expensive in the US.

If it were done in the US, it would most sensibly be run by Robert West. Remember, this study is for smoking generally, not just vaping, and it provides data that the CDC survey does not, principally because it asks the right questions and it rolls out continuously. It really is a remarkable study and, frankly, every country on earth should be running it.

Yes, $125k is a lot of money. But consider this - UCSF received $20m for its Tobacco Control research dept last year (or the year before, can't remember off the top of my head). Have they come up with anything that matches the importance of this kind of population level data?

No, they haven't. Frankly, it's a scandal - I honestly believe the reason they're not looking for it is because this level of data will throw up data they do not want to see.



... is what SJ was talking about, although I'm not sure if he's already pursuing it:

E-Cigarette Summit - Prof. Robert West - ECF InfoZone

I'm not sure how this got done in the UK or how we would do it here in the US.
 
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Oh YouGov - I always see them ref'd in The Econ and other UK press. My understanding is that they have the same kind of reputation that the top US polling firms do.

If the relevant scaling variable is population, then the multiplier would be 5x - about $850K.

This might not be a bad way to use some of the excess energy here at ECF, and in the vaping movement overall in the US. People really want to find ways to participate that don't require their attendance at a legislative committee session. $1M (let's say) is not out of line for a crowd funding effort. (Although I've heard of national US polls and marketing surveys that have been done for a lot less.)

CASAA, ECF, VPLive, other vaping sites and the Youtube commentators like Grimm Green, Phil Busardo (etc.) would have to all team up to make this a cause célèbre.

I think it's doable. At the very least it eliminates the gateway and dual user arguments - when applied to vaping as a whole. That's not (unfortunately) the statutory standard, but it would be extremely helpful as public relations and a way to pressure the FDA through congress.

I haven't seen any comparable suggestions on the table. This is something that could bring us all together towards an positive objective.

We need that, instead of always reacting defensively to each new salvo, as Cynthia (Cabrera) pointed out.

That is correct, Roger.

The survey itself is carried out by YouGov, and if done in the US would be carried out by one of their affiliates (actually, wholly owned acquisitions). The cost in the UK is £125k, and Robert tells me it would be more expensive in the US.

If it were done in the US, it would most sensibly be run by Robert West. Remember, this study is for smoking generally, not just vaping, and it provides data that the CDC survey does not, principally because it asks the right questions and it rolls out continuously. It really is a remarkable study and, frankly, every country on earth should be running it.

Yes, $125k is a lot of money. But consider this - UCSF received $20m for its Tobacco Control research dept last year (or the year before, can't remember off the top of my head). Have they come up with anything that matches the importance of this kind of population level data?

No, they haven't. Frankly, it's a scandal - I honestly believe the reason they're not looking for it is because this level of data will throw up data they do not want to see.
 

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Found it..

Had to go about it a weird way, perhaps because it's some sort of subscription thing? (Access denied; I can only view the cached version)...


May 13, 2014

NJOY Retools E-Cig Line, Adds Vaping

SCOTTSDALE, Ariz. -- Electronic cigarette maker NJOY has announced that it is refreshing and expanding its product line by introducing a rechargeable line of e-cigarettes and a "high-vapor" product or vapor-tank-mod (VTM), according to Bonnie Herzog, managing director of beverage, tobacco and convenience store research for Wells Fargo Securities LLC, New York.

NJOY also plans to introduce a new-and-improved disposable NJOY King.

The Scottsdale, Ariz.-based company expects to roll out its new lineup to between 35,000 and 40,000 retail outlets in July and August.


NJOY Retools E-Cig Line, Adds Vaping | CSPnet
 

AndriaD

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So if cigalikes are where it's going to be at due to the FDA, then why is NJOY even bothering to enter the eGo-type market at this point, which they recently announced? Haven't they read the proposed regs??


BT's Big 3 have at least 2-3 years, during which one of them will probably make a play for a non-cigalike company.. Who's going to make the 1st move, and for whom? BT is competing amongst themselves, keep in mind.. One goes for it, and the others will scramble & soon follow.. All it takes is one of them to pull that trigger & get a deal going...

Lorillard's CEO is already on recent record saying that their blu's are relatively weak & ineffective (read the 6-page transcript), and are trying to compete against eGo's by investing in cigalike technology & innovation.. They'll try to do it on their own in-house, but I don't believe they'll get there that way..

And once the hammer drops on official FDA regulations, at least some of these smaller vape companies will become more desperate, and more willing to get bought out if they feel they can't handle it on their own.. And one can argue that Lorillard is already planting the seeds via the recent SFATA conference, from the looks & sounds of it...


I really don't see this that far-fetched at all..

As for ProVape, who knows.. They may try to go it alone & it was only used as an example...


And yes, it is possible to quit via cigalikes, so BT is already most certainly cannibalizing their combustibles biz & aware of such.. It's not easy to quit that way, and there are easier ways, especially now, but it can be done..

I personally did it myself, and I'm sure there have been others... After a few months of full-time blu's & was done with smoking forever, I decided I liked vaping enough to continue doing it, so I explored further & climbed up that vape ladder... At one point, though, I was ready to put down the blu's & be done with vaping forever, as well...

I did it too, using an eRoll; it was just they held so little (.4ml !) and held a charge for such a short time, I was sick of the constant refill/rotate (in and out of the PCC) in about 2 wks, and ordered an iTaste vv3; it took maybe a week to get here, in which time I was still using the eRoll, and reaching the very end of my smoking; the day I actually started using my iTaste (I couldn't use it when I first got it because of the lame iClear16's it came with), was my first smoke-free day. So cigalikes got me there; better technology made it so much easier I've had no desire to return to setting fire to dead leaves and breathing their smoke.

What I don't get is why BT seems to be trying to reinvent the wheel -- the knowledge of how to build these things is all over the place, why aren't they using that knowledge to make their own PVs? They're really not all that "high tech" compared to say, smart-phones. Basically, battery holder, coil&wick, and something to put the liquid in -- what's so difficult about that? If what they're afraid of is that people will want to refill their own, I think that battle's already fought -- it's very clear that of course we want to choose flavors for ourselves, and refill as needed. Do they really think we're gonna go for it by using flavors THEY pick? I really don't think so.

For myself, it might not be so difficult; I smoked VA Slims for 30 yrs, and as someone joked when I'd been smoke-free for a month, all I wanted when I first got here was a VA Slim with a battery and less cancer. :D I think Altria owns VA Slims, so they could probably come up a flavor I could live with. But a lot of folks have already moved on past tobacco flavors, into things that actually taste better than "leaves," and I'm starting to try and go in that direction as well; when I first tried DIY, naturally I tried to create a Virginia flavor I liked, and it was a dismal failure; I've since learned that creating tasty tobacco flavors is actually much harder than the fruit/sweets type flavors, so I'm trying to get used to those so that at some point, I *can* DIY and not be held hostage to BT's idea of a good flavor. Because I've got 2 yrs to stockpile hardware, batteries, and nicotine base, which can be frozen; if I can create my own e-liquid, then whatever they finally do won't affect me so much.

Andria
 

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Derp.. Found a couple more...

NJOY Aims to Bring Vaping National | ConvenienceStoreNews



"She further speculated that following NJOY's move, the major tobacco companies, which are jockeying for position and trying to secure their own footholds in the e-cigarette marketplace, will also follow suit into the vaping category.

'If the robust growth of VTMs continues and is not ultimately hindered by [U.S. Food & Drug Administration] regulation, we expect Big Tobacco has no choice but to enter either organically or via acquisition. Given we view VTMs as a global opportunity, we believe NJOY may opt to strategically partner with another company in order to achieve international expansion and scale,' she said.
"

http://www.cspnet.com/category-mana...es/new-njoy-products-will-bring-vape-national
 

sky4it

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All I know is that people need to stop daydreaming that this is going to somehow work out with FDA/CDC/BP/BT in control or that there are negotiations open in it's current form. Congress can do something, but are going to reflect what they believe is the populist view, ie. democracy. We have to tell them, inform them, educate them. The FDA isn't going to.

yeah and nice catch Aikainae, this does seem to be exactly what is happening currently. And i do hope someone gets to that tell/inform/educate them itinerary. Without that there will be no golden goose who has a chance to lay the golden egg.

It's also an exercise in futility to predict/instruct based upon what someone might think is going to happen in a window more than 1 year out. Perhaps also a lot of missed opportunities if that is all that is focused on. <<<<<<<< Politically correct wouldn't you say Jeff?

A lesson from history will suffice. Rockwell International, one time in the top 30 in terms of world corporate conglomerates. When big corporate interest strikes, with politicians/business interests favoring whatever their plate maybe, after they get done, there is nothing left. Rockwell is today spun everywhere like so many parts. What was there major crime? They wanted to become less dependent on governmental contracts as a part of business strategy. It's in there profile. (Another less convincing argument is the AT&T telephone monopoly which was broken up by Ronald Reagan.) The point is that if AT&T where better at raw politics, their monopoly still may be intact.

About the only thing we can know for certain in the future is that whatever happens from the opposition will be based on window dressing that comes from challenging alternatives which reach the public attention. I have little doubt that the ecig landscape, based on history, will be forever altered.

The FDA response to BT and others ought(based on Zellers quip) to have been: Your in business, this is a free market, you are going to have to compete then. Perhaps we should have seen this coming from the FDA. Njoy,Blu and other big cigalikes, have done almost nothing to enter the clearo/tank market. Yeah I saw from another post here Njoy was doing something with egos, a little window dressing maybe? Also a lot of the EGO stuff from cigalike is the old CE4, the one that isn't re-buildable, its a high revenue driven item.(To be fair to Njoy I haven't seen what they are selling in terms of EGO's, but a Smoketech rebuildable CE5 would be a step in the right direction.) So that it follows, they were counting/planning - this? Collusion is difficult to prove. Motive, however is a big piece of the pie, and it is considered evidence in court. No allegations here, but they did have motive.

Oh and Stosh, point taken on the "APOLOGY" thought for Zeller and the FDA. When I was writing up that post, I did think that if I was in his shoes trying to mend fences that is exactly what I would have done.(Although I wouldn't of had to because I wouldn't have been in that hole in the first place.) There are people however, more than a few, who won't apologize, perhaps he is one of them? But I get the point. Also,I believe it was you who told me that word of mouth is more powerful then the media. (Can't remember but it stuck.) Got me thinking. I rarely socialize much at all, but the dentist, dental assistant and auto mechanic have been notified. Its kind of weird out here, we got 21 year olds walking around with EGO sticks. I pull out my lavatube with a big tank on it and there like amazed. I was up to the VFW to have a beer one night, the local is a couple blocks away, and guys who smoked stinkies were pulling Kanger evods out of there pockets and were part timers. It's usually a safe bet when this type of stuff reaches main street in Northern Minnesota, that it's also in a lot of cracks and crevices from here to the Bayou. You are correct, the word is spreading. Also Stosh Tinfoil aint bad, I actually enjoy it down there. You get to be, you get to do, and since there are fewer people, its a nice short stack. If I feel useless, I might as well be useless. I think I will go down there and talk to that great fact machine, TomBAker.

cheers...
 
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zoiDman

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So if cigalikes are where it's going to be at due to the FDA, then why is NJOY even bothering to enter the eGo-type market at this point, which they recently announced? Haven't they read the proposed regs??


...

Why wouldn't NJoy want to Upgrade their e-Cigarette line which is Way Behind the Current Norm?

If I was an e-Cigarette Company, I would be Moving ahead just like there was No Pending Regulations coming. And wanting Make as Much Money as I could Will I could.

I mean, It's not like if the FDA doesn't allow VV APV's that I would be Stuck with a VV APV Manufacturing Facility somewhere. I don't "Make" the Hardware. I buy Hardware that has my Brand on it for a 3rd Party.

And if a Particular piece of Hardware Can't be sold in coming Regulated Market, well... Ca Sara Sara, I just don't place anymore order with that 3rd Party.

But Buying a Company like Provape is an Entirely Different Story. Because I might Not be able to Recoup the Money I have to put out Now for it if Down the Road Provapes Products are Non FDA Approved.
 

Gato del Jugo

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Why wouldn't NJoy want to Upgrade their e-Cigarette line which is Way Behind the Current Norm?

And why wouldn't BT want to upgrade?

As a group, they've already sunk in at least a good $300-$400 million, I'd say, on cigalikes (and that's probably a low-ball)..

If they continue that strategy, they are going to get their shirts handed to them, FDA or not..

Of course, they can relatively afford it -- in the sense that if they didn't have combustibles funding them, they'd have been out of business a long time ago..


They are so far behind at this point, both financially & technologically, it's not even funny..


Listen, even the e-cig queen analyst Bonnie Herzog of Wells Fargo is saying what I'm saying.. BT needs to do this organically (yeah, good luck) or via acquisition.. Otherwise, they're toast, since the FDA regs are still too far away in this rapidly-growing & -changing market...


Many vape companies, from NJOY & ProVape to all the large Chinese ones like Kanger & Innokin, are not just going to roll over on this.. There is way too much money at stake to just walk away like the smaller mom & pops will eventually be forced to...

I don't know why some people are arguing that the relatively larger ones will fold up.. They'll either try to fight this on their own, or get swallowed up by somebody with deeper pockets & bigger connections -- and not necessarily BT.. You can bet there are some private-equity investment firms eyeing this space...
 

AndriaD

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Looks like a 650-mAh eGo & iClear16 type..

Decent step up from a blu cigalike, no...?

View attachment 337311


That clock is ticking, BT... ;)

NO! It's not a step up at all! The first clearos I ever had were those awful topcoil iClear16 kind, and they SUCK!

And 650 mAh? That's a joke! My iTaste vv3 is 800 mAh and THAT is too short! If it didn't have pass-thru, it really wouldn't be all that usable at all.

I've got some 18650s with 2250 mAh, and even that seems a bit insipid next to 2 stacked '350s!

Andria
 
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