<sniip>
I agree with 99% of what you say, with a few caveas:
1) "Medicalizing" vaping could be in the interests of all the deep-pocketed players: BT + BV + BP. (BV = "big vapor" viz. NJOY and LOGIC). You Europeans know better than we Yanks that this was the original goal of the TPD and what the MHRA wants to do. An unappealing-but-highly-profitable prescription alternative puts money into all the big players' pockets - directly or indirectly. BP keeps making money off of ill tobacco cigarette smokers who will continue to be BT's customers and pay huge sin taxes (did I mention gov'ts as important players?).
2) Both the US FDA and the US TPD regulatory scheme have one important loophole that may be relevant to some vapers: the lack of regulation for devices that cannot be used to vaporize nicotine. A manufacturer would have to design proprietary non-user-refillable cartridges and not offer nicotine-containing e-liquid. Some EU member states and the US FDA would undoubtedly try to exercise jurisdiction over these devices under the "e-cigarette" rubric, if there was any practicable way for a consumer to alter them so that nicotine-containing e-liqud could be vaporized with them. However there is a very real possibility that some courts will find the "can be used" language in para 16 of TPD artcle 2 overbroad - ditto any such interpretation by the FDA using its own tobacco products jurisdiction. (In the EU case, it's important to remember that the TPD is not itself law, but a framework for member states to use: some may not adopt or enforce every nuance of the TPD, such as regulating common household batteries under Art. 18).
3) There's one other US regulatory nuance that doesn't exist in the TPD: nicotine derived from non-tobacco sources - if practical to market (and that is a big "if") - cannot be regulated under the FDA's tobacco products rubric unless offered for therapeutic purposes. Only the US DEA could do so, and that presents the question of whether the DEA could regulate a drug legally sold over-the-counter based soley on its origin (i.e. distinguish nicotine derived from e.g. eggplant versus that derived from tobacco based on molecular structure differences, such as isomers).
4) Last, but not least: I hope there will be "millions of vapers" (your words) in the future, and that the oft-repeated phrase "smoking is dead, vaping is the future,and the future is now" comes to fruition. However only time will tell whether any significant number of smokers are able to quit using whatever dreadful cigAlikes that BT and BV decide to (and are permitted to) offer in the US. If non-cigAlike equpment is effectively eliminated from the non-black market in the US as it will almost certainly be in the EU, then I have my doubts about whether vaping as we know it will thrive. Not everyone has the time and dedication to build a "flashlight mod" out of an Altoid tin. Currently, the only types of equpment that have a semi-permanent lifespan are mechs, RDAs and rebuildale tank atomizers. But most of these have proprietary non-metal parts that will wear out. Vaping as we know it may go the way of "home (beer) brewing" - a practice limited to a small group of dedicated hobbyists.
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