The FDA and hardware (questions)

[roxynoodle]

Well, I suspect many of our young, non smoking vapers see vaping as a fad at this time in their life. Blowing clouds is cool for them right now. But, I expect most will discontinue vaping anyway within 2-5 years. If there's no addiction, I predict they will grow up and move on.

 

[Douggro]

You are assuming that current rates of new smokers will remain the same in a vaping/smoking
environment as it is now. Left without government entanglements vaping is predicted to
overtake smoking in the future. By that time the MSA money would have stopped because
the smoking rate would have dropped below the level requiring payments.

We are facing government entanglements, however: deeming at the Federal level, and taxation at the local level. Those have every potential to shift the playing field back to putting vaping on the fringe/sub-culture territory.

I believe your argument is based on continuation of the status quo. If I'm misunderstanding that, the error is mine.

Well, I suspect many of our young, non smoking vapers see vaping as a fad at this time in their life. Blowing clouds is cool for them right now. But, I expect most will discontinue vaping anyway within 2-5 years. If there's no addiction, I predict they will grow up and move on.

Yeah, us Old Farts have different motivations than "being cool". CLOUDZ, BRAH!!!

 

[AndriaD]

Well, I suspect many of our young, non smoking vapers see vaping as a fad at this time in their life. Blowing clouds is cool for them right now. But, I expect most will discontinue vaping anyway within 2-5 years. If there's no addiction, I predict they will grow up and move on.

Totally agree! I started smoking a few weeks before my 14th birthday, a very stupid thing for a very stupid adolescent. When I was 23, I gave it my very best shot to quit smoking, (3 months cold-turkey smoke-free) because I met a man that I thought at the time was the love of my life, who HATED smoking. Alas, the smoking had a great deal more staying-power than the romance; he and I were together less than 3 yrs, including a year of marriage; I smoked for almost 30 more yrs. Divorce is horrible, it makes one feel like a complete failure, but it's a heck of a lot easier than quitting smoking. At least, before vaping it was.

Andria

 

[roxynoodle]

Totally agree! I started smoking a few weeks before my 14th birthday, a very stupid thing for a very stupid adolescent. When I was 23, I gave it my very best shot to quit smoking, (3 months cold-turkey smoke-free) because I met a man that I thought at the time was the love of my life, who HATED smoking. Alas, the smoking had a great deal more staying-power than the romance; he and I were together less than 3 yrs, including a year of marriage; I smoked for almost 30 more yrs. Divorce is horrible, it makes one feel like a complete failure, but it's a heck of a lot easier than quitting smoking. At least, before vaping it was.

Andria

Yeah, I had a short marriage, too, and divorce is horrible. I never even managed to quit smoking for a day prior to vaping though. And during the divorce I smoked more than ever.

 

[zoiDman]

This may be true for the short term but, it's not a sustainable proposition. When the taxes on e-cig.'s
reach parity to cigarettes the cost factor overall will make the product prohibitive for smokers
to make the switch. One tends to get comfortable in one lifestyle and the health
considerations are not enough as all the negative misinformation will still be out there.
In the post deeming world of highly taxed e-cig products imagine if pricing from Mainland
China resembled current B&M prices. B&M pricing would be proportionally higher. Online
pricing if allowed would be in between. This may be an over exaggeration but,you can
see what I am getting at. They want a revenue stream for sure. It must be a sustainable
revenue stream. Cigarettes are the way to go as they have a 30% dependency rate.
If allowed e-cigs would eventually overtake smoking. Somewhere between where we are at
now and a 50/50 split between vapers/smokers more life time non-tobacco users would
have to be taking up vaping as there will not be enough smokers to keep the party rolling.
The whole thing would eventually die on the vine. Lifetime non-tobacco users do not
develop a dependency to nicotine and as much would not have a hook to put up with
the high prices. The majority of life time non-tobacco users use zero nic anyway.

Regards
Mike

I think what you are Not Considering is that As Long as Cigarettes are Sold in this Country, that there will Always be People who Try Smoking and then Get Hooked.

e-Cigarettes May Slightly Decrease this Percentage. But they will Never Significantly Reduce it.

So you are Always going to have Smokers. And if you have Smokers, then you will have Smokers who want to Quit, But Can't.

So the Equated Cost of Vaping vs Smoking concept could hold up if somehow all Would be Smokers could use e-Cigarettes instead of Regular Cigarettes. But that Isn't going to happen.

 

[zoiDman]

You'e right. You don't hear them. They don't stand in front of a podium with a microphone. They whisper quietly in darkened back offices when no one is watching. Announcing their intentions out loud would be horrible PR. They want you to think they care about you.

How are these Faceless people who Whisper in the Shadows?

And what Agenda do they Serve? And Power do they Wield to Achieve their Goals?

 

[haleysdadda]

Disagree. There are certainly smokers to whom the price advantage of vaping might indeed be a consideration in making the switch, but it doesn't seem to be that important, otherwise we'd have a heck of a lot more vapers doing DIY liquids rather that paying $15-20 for a bottle of juice. Also, if price was all that important to smokers, why do the overwhelming majority of them buy commercial, pre-packaged cigarettes (with most of those still being "premium" rather than "value" brands) rather than moving to RYO?

I believe that health consideration are and always will be the primary motivating factor in making the switch. The health benefits are plain to see in anyone who smoked for decades and then switched, and they are priceless.

I was that RYO guy! So the switch for me was about health not the money! The gear I've bought in the last 10 months has cost me a fortune! LOL! No regrets!

 

[roxynoodle]

I think what you are Not Considering is that As Long as Cigarettes are Sold in this Country, that there will Always be People who Try Smoking and then Get Hooked.

e-Cigarettes May Slightly Decrease this Percentage. But they will Never Significantly Reduce it.

So you are Always going to have Smokers. And if you have Smokers, then you will have Smokers who want to Quit, But Can't.

So the Equated Cost of Vaping vs Smoking concept could hold up if somehow all Would be Smokers could use e-Cigarettes instead of Regular Cigarettes. But that Isn't going to happen.

We've already seen the government's response in the form of the deeming regulations to the smoking rate declining 5% in the last couple of years. I think they're very concerned about the cash flow drying up. If there's no good way to help smokers quit (vaping), then their money is protected. Nothing has been easier to tax than cigarettes the past two decades. As the smoking rate declined only a little at a time over those 2 decades, they raised taxes accordingly. Now with the prediction of a very low smoking rate within the next decade, its panic time.

This is just my opinion, of course. But, its the only one that truly makes sense to me in light of the evidence thus far that vaping is a much better alternative to tobacco use. What other reason could there be for the intense fear mongering campaign they've been engaging in? Extreme taxes on vaping will generate some income, but not those MSA payments they've come to rely on as well.

 

[zoiDman]

We've already seen the government's response in the form of the deeming regulations to the smoking rate declining 5% in the last couple of years. I think they're very concerned about the cash flow drying up. If there's no good way to help smokers quit (vaping), then their money is protected. Nothing has been easier to tax than cigarettes the past two decades. As the smoking rate declined only a little at a time over those 2 decades, they raised taxes accordingly. Now with the prediction of a very low smoking rate within the next decade, its panic time.

This is just my opinion, of course. But, its the only one that truly makes sense to me in light of the evidence thus far that vaping is a much better alternative to tobacco use. What other reason could there be for the intense fear mongering campaign they've been engaging in? Extreme taxes on vaping will generate some income, but not those MSA payments they've come to rely on as well.

But here is the Problem. Nobody thinks that Smoking Rates will continue to Drop. And that we are Close to a Point of Equilibrium right now.

The other Problem is that if it is Easy to Tax Cigarettes, why will it be any Harder to Tax e-Cigarettes/e-Liquids?

Isn't that what the Last 2 Years has been about? Concerted effort to cast e-Cigarettes in the Worst Possible way. A constant Bombardment of the Ill-Informed masses as to how e-Cigarettes are an Evil.

It's easy to Tax Evil. Everyone likes to Get Onboard that Train.

 

[Rule62]

But here is the Problem. Nobody thinks that Smoking Rates will continue to Drop. And that we are Close to a Point of Equilibrium right now.

The other Problem is that if it is Easy to Tax Cigarettes, why will it be any Harder to Tax e-Cigarettes/e-Liquids?

Isn't that what the Last 2 Years has been about? Concerted effort to cast e-Cigarettes in the Worst Possible way. A constant Bombardment of the Ill-Informed masses as to how e-Cigarettes are an Evil.

It's easy to Tax Evil. Everyone likes to Get Onboard that Train.

The simple fact is, no politician, in his right mind, will propose 'across the board' tax increases. It's usually political suicide. But faced with budget deficits, whether they be Federal, State, or Local, the next option is 'sin taxes', whether it's alcohol, gambling, smoking, or whatever else is looked upon by political leaders as 'sin'. It's low hanging fruit. Right now, e-cigs are the most obvious. All of the other sins have already fallen under the Sin Tax hammer. If only 18% of the population smokes, 82% of the population doesn't care. If 4% of the population vapes, 96% of the population, smokers and non smokers alike, don't care.

 

[roxynoodle]

But here is the Problem. Nobody thinks that Smoking Rates will continue to Drop. And that we are Close to a Point of Equilibrium right now.

The other Problem is that if it is Easy to Tax Cigarettes, why will it be any Harder to Tax e-Cigarettes/e-Liquids?

Isn't that what the Last 2 Years has been about? Concerted effort to cast e-Cigarettes in the Worst Possible way. A constant Bombardment of the Ill-Informed masses as to how e-Cigarettes are an Evil.

It's easy to Tax Evil. Everyone likes to Get Onboard that Train.

I think they realize it will be more difficult to contain. They know many of us are making our own juice. And making mods. And don't want things to "get anymore out of (their) control" than it already is. I certainly didn't grow my own tobacco. I didn't even roll my own, although I was considering it shortly before I quit.

And you have all the ANTZ crying about saving the children. They want to shut them up, too.

 

[AndriaD]

Yeah, I had a short marriage, too, and divorce is horrible. I never even managed to quit smoking for a day prior to vaping though. And during the divorce I smoked more than ever.

I'm pretty sure the only reason I was even able to give it a shot was thx to strep throat -- I had left my cigarettes in my car when I got to the guy's house of course, and he ended up nursing me for a week, during which I was too sick to even get out of bed for anything other than the bathroom, and even the *thought* of smoking made me nauseous and gave me an impression of hot gravel in my throat. Once I was able to get back in my car, the smell grossed me out, and I thought, well it's been a week since I've smoked, why not give it a shot? So I did, I mean I really tried hard, suffering every minute of every day... after 3 months of it, I just couldn't stand it another second and went back to smoking -- secretly. I hid it from him for over a year, always eating, toothbrushing, and showering before he got home from work (where he was surrounded by smokers, no doubt very helpful for my ruse!). This was in 1984, patches were either not yet available, or only by prescription, or I might have tried that. But my later 2 experiences with them indicate that it wouldn't have made any difference even if I'd had them in 1984; I never could go even a week using the Patch.

Andria

 

[zoiDman]

The simple fact is, no politician, in his right mind, will propose 'across the board' tax increases. It's usually political suicide. But faced with budget deficits, whether they be Federal, State, or Local, the next option is 'sin taxes', whether it's alcohol, gambling, smoking, or whatever else is looked upon by political leaders as 'sin'. It's low hanging fruit. Right now, e-cigs are the most obvious. All of the other sins have already fallen under the Sin Tax hammer. If only 18% of the population smokes, 82% of the population doesn't care. If 4% of the population vapes, 96% of the population, smokers and non smokers alike, don't care.

I think you pretty much Nailed It right there Rule62.

 

[skoony]

Disagree. There are certainly smokers to whom the price advantage of vaping might indeed be a consideration in making the switch, but it doesn't seem to be that important, otherwise we'd have a heck of a lot more vapers doing DIY liquids rather that paying $15-20 for a bottle of juice. Also, if price was all that important to smokers, why do the overwhelming majority of them buy commercial, pre-packaged cigarettes (with most of those still being "premium" rather than "value" brands) rather than moving to RYO?

As with smokers as with vapers. Convenience. The easiest route to the desired outcome. The majority of lifetime
smokers I know including myself have RYO at times mostly to save cost's but as economic factors change so do
purchasing decisions.

I understand there's evidence that this is true under relatively short-term, controlled experiments. Whether it remains true after someone who's never used tobacco has been vaping nic for a decade or longer remains to be seen.

there is absolutely nothing indicating otherwise at this time.

I don't doubt that's what the majority of them CLAIM

Every study I have seen that looked at this has said 99% of life time non-tobacco users who go directly to e-cigs do not use
nicotine. Some may have quoted figures slightly less but,all were ridiculously low.

I believe your argument is based on continuation of the status quo. If I'm misunderstanding that, the error is mine.

Yes pretty much. That's why I have said allowing vaping to remain as it is in a post deeming world is an unworkable
model as far as revenue streams are concerned.

I think what you are Not Considering is that As Long as Cigarettes are Sold in this Country, that there will Always be People who Try Smoking and then Get Hooked.

Yes but in ever diminishing amounts if vaping remains pretty much the same post deeming.

So you are Always going to have Smokers. And if you have Smokers, then you will have Smokers who want to Quit, But Can't.

See my response above. Look at the new numbers concerning underage usage. The kids have reduced cigarette use
once again primarily due to vaping. The teen years are the prime producer of the smoking population.
Of course this is all speculation but, it's based on what is known now. Thing could change in the future.

Regards
Mike

 

[zoiDman]

...

And you have all the ANTZ crying about saving the children. They want to shut them up, too.

Oh I'm sure that the State and Feds have their "Plans" to Reduce Underage Vaping.

Face-2-Face Sales Only
Vigorous Ad Campaigns
Taxes that pay for Vigorous Ad Campaigns

The Only thing they Don't Mention is that they will have the Same or Less Success as they did Stopping Minors from using e-Cigarettes as they did with Stopping Minors from Smoking.

 

[Douggro]

We've already seen the government's response in the form of the deeming regulations to the smoking rate declining 5% in the last couple of years. I think they're very concerned about the cash flow drying up. If there's no good way to help smokers quit (vaping), then their money is protected. Nothing has been easier to tax than cigarettes the past two decades. As the smoking rate declined only a little at a time over those 2 decades, they raised taxes accordingly. Now with the prediction of a very low smoking rate within the next decade, its panic time.

This is just my opinion, of course. But, its the only one that truly makes sense to me in light of the evidence thus far that vaping is a much better alternative to tobacco use. What other reason could there be for the intense fear mongering campaign they've been engaging in? Extreme taxes on vaping will generate some income, but not those MSA payments they've come to rely on as well.

There's a nagging little notion in my head, though, that all of what's happening is a collision of separate and semi-related conditions rather than some Machiavellian scheme drawn up in a dark back room in hushed tones.

Smoking is BAD.
E-cigs and vaping look just like smoking, ergo = BAD.
E-cigs and vapes contain nicotine = double-down on BAD.
E-cigs and vapes are unregulated = BAD.
E-cigs and vapes are untaxed = BAD.

Take that and all the disparate and separate special-interest groups who fight the BAD stuff, add the government, and it's just a case of piling-on. Their specific interests may cross paths, but this does not specifically imply conspiracy or collusion - that's an inference drawn on our part, since we are, effectively, the group subject to the greatest impact and are sensitive to our rights of lifestyle and choice being threatened.

Just my thoughts.

 

[Rossum]

The other Problem is that if it is Easy to Tax Cigarettes, why will it be any Harder to Tax e-Cigarettes/e-Liquids?

E-liquids will be somewhat harder to tax at excessive rates. One liter of pure nic takes up about the same amount of space as a single carton of cigarettes. It could easily be smuggled into a high-tax jurisdiction in a booze bottle. Yet that liter of pure nic would make something like 2000-5000 30ml bottles of e-liquid (depending on final nic level). Tax e-liquid too much and there WILL be an "informal market".

 

[zoiDman]

...

Yes but in ever diminishing amounts if vaping remains pretty much the same post deeming.


...

I Can't Even Imagine someone say'n this with a Straight Face. Let alone Basing Future Trends on it.

 

[crxess]

Decided
As of any Deeming Date
My Gear is all being Reclassified as Aroma Theropy Devices and Liquids.
I love the Smell of Cappuccino in the Morning, refreshing Caramel/Cream during a long day and oh, the scent of Butterscotch in the evening.

Seriously, I will be picking up at least 2 Liters more 100mg Nic if/when MFS does another discount. Christmas interfered this month.
I already have enough to last my lifetime, but I have family and friends I will gladly assist in avoiding the Debacle ahead.

 

[zoiDman]

E-liquids will be somewhat harder to tax at excessive rates. One liter of pure nic takes up about the same amount of space as a single carton of cigarettes. It could easily be smuggled into a high-tax jurisdiction in a booze bottle. Yet that liter of pure nic would make something like 2000-5000 30ml bottles of e-liquid (depending on final nic level). Tax e-liquid too much and there WILL be an "informal market".

No one is Say'n that Excessive Taxation isn't going to Cause More Problems than Monetary Good (Tax) All one has to do is Look at NYC and the Price of a Pack of Cigarettes. Then pick up empty Packs of Smokes off the ground and see that about a 1/3 of them Don't have a Tax Stamp.

BTW - If you were Worried about a liter of Liquid Nicotine being Boot Legged and Non-Taxed, wouldn't you Consider Closed System Cartridges as a Means to Combat this "Problem"?

Close System Cartridges also fits Nicely into the "Save the Children" thing when it comes to Kids wanting to Vape "Other Stuff" besides Nicotine.