If the deeming passes as currently written, there won't be a market to regulate. There will be no juice sales because there will be no refillabe gear available. At least not legally. And selling bottles of juice will be illegal on day one after the regs go into effect. This
Predicate Product Exists: Altria In Negotiations To Acquire
is the only known usable piece of vaping gear that will qualify as existing before the grandfather date, and a tobacco company is trying to buy the rights to it now. (Isn't it funny they picked such an arbitrary grandfather date? Isn't it coincidental that there is only one known patent that existed before that date? No back room deals there, I'm sure.) How many vapers do you know that would be satisfied with that thing? If it was the only thing available, how many would you buy before you gave up? How long will Altria manufacture theses things before they decide to quit losing money on them? No one, not even BT or BP will shell out the money to get through the application process for new gear knowing they will end up losing billions in the long term. And no one will buy a cheesy sealed system cig-a-like when they cost $50 each and only last 3 or 4 hours.
We all have our gear that we can use for now, but what happens when it breaks? Will you take a chance on ordering contraband from another country and having it shipped to your home? How many of us are going to have the ability to fabricate new gear ourselves? One in ten? One in a thousand? And of those, how many are going to be willing to take a chance on selling unapproved gear on the black market? When there is no more functional gear, there is no more vaping. Those of us that are smart have a stash of DIY materials and extra gear, but when your last piece of gear wears out 5 or 10 years from now, what will you do? I'm handy enough to build my own mod, but no way in hell I'd take a chance on going to prison for selling them in quantity.
And what happens in a couple of years when they figure out folks are still finding ways to vape and push to make possession of gear illegal?
The regulations aren't going to kill vaping immediately after they pass. We will be able to carry on, huddled in our basements, looking over our shoulders till our supplies run out. It's more like putting someone in an airtight room and waiting till the oxygen runs out.
This is 1 Possible Scenario. Allbeit, a Worst Case Scenario. But a Scenario none the less.
Another Possible Scenario is that BT already has a handful of PMTA's ready to be submitted. And that they will Submit the Day after Deeming is Finalized. And will receive Approval during a 90 Day "Grace Period" that the FDA Offers.
I don't see the FDA Crashing the e-Cigarette Market if there is Not an Approvable e-Cigarette or Two waiting in the wings. Same with e-Liquids.
Liquid e-Liquid and Nicotine Base could very Well be Severely Restricted under an Emergency FDA Actions. But once again, I Don't see that happening Unless there are Pre-Filled Cartridges waiting in a Warehouse ready for a Store Shelf.
