I'm starting to see where you are going with this.
The majority of the Black Market you are referring to is Smuggling from One State with a Lower State Tax to Another with a Higher State Tax on tobacco.
Exactly. A black market for a legal product means smuggling will occur within the same country. And will generally be very profitable for those smugglers. It would be interesting to know what manufacturers really think about such a market, especially with smokes. I'm sure on the surface, they are against it. But, I can't think of a bigger middle finger to the government than allowing that sort of market to flourish, and given the crap that BT has had to deal with from government, I'm thinking some inside BT couldn't be happier.
Also, keep in mind that it wouldn't take smugglers to make it work, but that smugglers are there to make it widespread and more easily accessible for dealers (legal, or otherwise). But any individual can go from state that has heavy taxation to state that doesn't, and get stocked up for awhile.
Cigarette Smuggling Increase Prompts Crackdown by States - Bloomberg
Looking at it that way, I would have to Agree that this type of State to State Black Market would be Much Harder to Combat.
To me, a kicker to all this is that Big Crime could theoretically be pushing for harsh regulations against vaping right now. Kinda hoping for bans (on product) to occur. While also knowing that under a ban, they would stand to gain the most.
For some people, the answer to proliferation of smokes on a black market is to simply revisit the law and make them illegal. Which would only appease the black market. The obvious solution is to lower taxes, but I think we all realize that is unlikely, so government has co-created cartels that aren't BT, and yet, which greatly benefit BT. IMO, it is the epitome of 'government greed.' Could've arguably made more money, and had far greater control, if taxation were kept to a minimum. Instead, that desire to demonize and then heavily tax was seemingly so great, they though they had BT by the neck. Turns out, the government is up to their neck in it (or something that rhymes with "it") and literally has no easy way out at this point, even while the obvious answer stares them right in the face. And yet, ignoring or underplaying any existence of a black market, while sales revenues are seen as declining means 'more taxation' is necessary. And well, you just make cartels very very happy.