It is very complicated. There are so many variables and uncertainties that predicting what the market will look like a year from now, let alone three years from now, is difficult. You have enough litigation, legislation, and regulation and taxation on the state level, that predicting where it will all end up is conjecture.
Regardless of how things go, I do believe the casualty in the marketplace will be open systems. We might prefer them, we might find them more effective, but even if the predicate date is changed, without a clear statement as to how one will get a system approved, all we'll have left is whatever is currently legitimately sold in the US. Nothing new. That will still drive most B&M and small (probably some not so small ones too) online vendors out of business. Don't forget, regardless of the predicate date or even the pending legislation, advertising and marketing is getting hit too. How are those vendors going to reach out to new customers without being able to discuss the benefits of their products? If you can't find new customers, you've got a big problem.
OTOH, BT has less of an issue there, as they have an entire distribution system in place with their closed systems sitting right next to those cigarette packs. To the general public, those things are what e cigs are. They have little to no knowledge about "real" vaping gear. And how will they ever find out about open systems and their superiority to cigalikes when advertising and marketing is restricted by regulations?
