I think if I were a maker of drip tips, I'd apply for approval of a few. Say three: red, white and puce. I suppose each would require a separate application. Then I'd "quantify the likelihood that nonsmokers will start using the product" by saying that there is no possible way to quantify it, but I sure hope a lot of them do, as the nonsmokers are likely to be vapers looking for a more colorful drip tip. Black is so boring.
As for the likelihood of former smokers relapsing back to nicotine by use of the product, do you think the FDA would be satisfied if I did a poll of former smokers: "Would these nice drip tips cause you to start vaping?" Or I could tell them that a more likely cause of such a relapse would be anxiety and stress associated with wondering what's the next good product the FDA will decide to regulate out of existence.
Might these drip tips cause users to "progress" to smoking"? That seems unlikely, but the FDA demands proof. I don't suppose I could get away with saying "no," that it wouldn't be progress for vapers to take up smoking. Nah, that would never fly. I'd have to do double-blind, random clinical trials. Give the trial group my nice drip tips and give the control group vape gear with no drip tips, and maybe give a third group cheap black drip tips. And see how many of each group "progressed." Yeah, that should do it.
What is the likelihood that consumers will use the product in conjunction with other tobacco products? Well, if mods and atomizers are tobacco products, I'd have to say the odds are close to 100%. Whatta ya goin to do? Can't lie about it--probably a felony.
What is the likelihood that smokers who start using my drip tips would otherwise have quit smoking? Hummm, that's a hard one. Now, in a world without drip tips I'd have to admit that vaping might be more cumbersome and people might be less motivated to vape and instead say "To hell with it, I'll just go cold turkey." So does this apply to drip tips in general, or mine as compared to others? I'd like to think mine are the most attractive, but it seems unlikely that that would be the determining factor as to whether someone vapes instead of quitting cold turkey (if that's what they mean by "quit smoking"). I might be inclined to say that if you vape you're not smoking. But I don't want to PO the FDA. They might not take my application seriously.